Editor’s note: Today, we're featuring valuable insight from our resource expert, Louis James.
In the essay below, adapted from this month's issue of Casey Resource Investor, Louis explains what Trump's victory means for the resource market going forward…and shares the sector he's most bullish on today…
Donald Trump’s “surprise” victory last month was a shock only to so-called liberals in the U.S.
The same can be said of Trump’s “surprise” victory in the Republican primary; it was only a shock to political insiders. Anyone objective could see the waves of dissatisfaction sweeping the country. It wasn’t just the economy, but the sense of elites running roughshod over “the little guy.”
The same force helped power the Brexit vote, which so shocked Europe’s political elites last June.
And the same is now being said of Austria’s presidential election, which was just won by former Green Party member Alexander Van der Bellen. His opponent, “far right” candidate Norbert Hofer, was no mainstream candidate, either. That voters didn’t choose the “Trump-like” candidate is not the point. It’s that they were fed up enough to oust the status quo to vote for major change.
Perhaps most telling of all is that there’s a streak a mile wide of the same spirit in what just happened in Italy. What else can you call it when a comedian turned politician can so successfully challenge the establishment?
True to his word, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has resigned after the pro-EU referendum he staked his career on was voted down this past Sunday. The “No” vote won by a substantial margin, with about 60% of the vote.
Gold popped initially on this news. Then the euro hit a 20-month low against the U.S. dollar, and gold dropped right back again and is still under pressure as I write. These two factors may be at odds for a while, with the “strong” dollar coming out on top in the short term.
That’s because Italy’s vote doesn’t change anything right away, other than the prime minister losing his job. But make no mistake: It sets the stage for the populist Five Star Movement to emplace a lot of anti-EU politicians in Italy’s next government. That could result in Italy leaving the European Union, which would be a major shock to the European and global economies.
Brexit on steroids.
And that, in turn, could lead to further disintegration of the EU, and more shock and instability in the global financial system.
That’s all very bullish for gold, but it will take a while to play out.
Meanwhile, back in the USA, the vote recount circus is not expected to change the outcome of the presidential election. Clinton won the popular vote but lost the election. A few more votes her way are not likely to change that. One might argue that since she is a consummate Washington insider and a member of Obama’s party, anti-establishment feeling did not win the day. But the more than five million Libertarian and Green votes were anti-establishment and should be added to Trump’s tally as votes against “the swamp.” It’s clear that more Americans voted against the status quo than for it.
Be that as it may, the Trump administration is coming together and pushing ahead. With a Republican majority in both houses of Congress, it seems likely that a lot of Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) agenda will advance. If the changes are wrenching enough, the shock should have a strong positive impact on safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
Few people seem to see this yet.
That, of course, is a contrarian opportunity. All the more so with Tax Loss Season peaking in the weeks just ahead.
And then, as Trump gains traction on his proposals next year, we should see a rude awakening. That’s true of even the best proposals, such as tax cuts and regulatory relief. They will impose costs up front and benefits will take time to appear. But for now, the paper gold traders in New York City seem to think that Trump’s tax cuts and regulatory repeals will make everything instantly better, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
In short, we’ll have to be patient until this Trump Honeymoon becomes the Trump Presidential Reality Show.
Fortunately, there is another trend in motion that we can take advantage of. Even if Trump’s proposed trillion dollars in infrastructure spending gets pared back by Congress, we’re still looking at a lot of new demand for industrial metals and other raw materials. All those roads, bridges, dams, buildings, and such will need literally millions of tonnes (and tons) of resources in addition to what the private sector is already planning to consume.
Best of all, in terms of predicting these trends, is that politicians love to spend money. Drastic changes to the U.S. tax code and regulations are controversial, and likely to be watered down. That’s if they make it through at all. But Trump was voted in with a mandate to spend trillions on MAGA, and I think Congress will oblige him. This is extremely bullish for non-precious metals and other minerals.
It’s clear that many investors see this, too, as you can see in the price chart below.
Industrial metal prices have been rising much of the year, but the trend has accelerated since the U.S. election.
Editor’s note: Right now, Louis and his team are particularly interested in zinc. They say the industrial metal could be headed much higher from here…and they recently told Casey Resource Investor readers the best way to take advantage.
It's a diversified miner that stands to do extremely well during the Trump years. According to Louis, this company should “see huge profit increases going forward,” and that should “translate into huge gains” for his readers. Plus, the business is already profitable, paying dividends, and growing strongly.
You can learn all about this company by taking a risk-free trial of Casey Resource Investor today. By signing up today, you'll get a full 90 days to see if this service is right for you. Click here to learn more.