Justin’s note: Nick Giambruno is the chief analyst of Casey Research’s flagship publication, The Casey Report. He’s a successful speculator, a true international man, and a contrarian. He’s also a clear thinker – and sees something big ahead.
Today, he shows why government overreach will cause the next financial crisis… explains his “the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust” theory… and how we’re headed for the biggest bust of all…
By Nick Giambruno, chief analyst, The Casey Report
It was perhaps The Economist’s most bizarre issue to date…
In January 1988, the magazine published a feature article titled “Get Ready for a World Currency.”
The article called for countries to give up their monetary sovereignty in favor of a world central bank, which would issue a new global currency. It suggested the name “phoenix” for the currency.
The article recognized that most governments wouldn’t participate under normal circumstances. It claimed it would take a crisis.
The 31-year-old article concluded with a prediction:
Pencil in the phoenix for around 2018, and welcome it when it comes.
Now, 2018 has come and gone. But the prospect of a global financial crisis ushering in a world central bank and a new global currency is increasingly plausible.
As I’ll explain shortly, this is bad news for the U.S. dollar.
For months, I’ve been telling my readers that an epic market crash is very likely before the end of Trump’s first term…
That’s because the magnitude of a crisis is directly related to the amount of malinvestment getting flushed from the economy.
In other words, the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.
And right now, there is an unprecedented amount of malinvestment waiting to be flushed, thanks to seven years of 0% interest rates and the $3.7 trillion the Fed “printed” after the 2008 financial crisis.
The Fed inflated the housing bubble with about two years of 1% interest rates. So it’s hard to fathom how much it distorted the economy with seven years of 0% interest rates.
The Fed ended up creating not just a housing bubble, or a tech bubble, or a bond bubble, but an “everything bubble.”
It’s the biggest bubble in human history.
When it pops, people will panic and demand that politicians do something.
This will be the perfect opportunity for the globalists to finalize their pet project: a global central bank that issues a global currency.
In that sense, The Economist’s 2018 prediction may end up close to the mark.
Let me explain…
You see, The Economist’s global central bank and the phoenix currency were code names…
“Global central bank” and “international currency” referred to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the international currency it issues, known as the “Special Drawing Right” (SDR).
The IMF describes itself as an:
organization of 189 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.
In short, the IMF is the quintessential globalist institution. Pretty much every country in the world is a member, save for Cuba, North Korea, and a few others.
The SDR, meanwhile, is simply a basket of other leading fiat currencies. The U.S. dollar currently makes up 42%, the euro 31%, the Chinese renminbi 11%, the Japanese yen 8%, and the British pound 8%.
In other words, the SDR is a fiat currency based on other fiat currencies – a floating abstraction based on other floating abstractions.
For decades, the IMF has been using crises to build the SDR into a global currency…
Today, there are about 204 billion SDRs in existence. They’re worth about $285 billion, or about $1.39 per SDR.
In the past, the IMF hasn’t created SDRs at regular intervals. Instead, it’s created several increasingly larger tranches during or just after global financial crises.
As you can see in the chart below, the IMF created SDRs in bulk in 1972, 1981, and 2009. These were all periods of severe financial stress.
The IMF increased the supply of SDRs by almost 10 times in response to the 2008-2009 financial crisis. This was a huge incremental step towards establishing the IMF as a global central bank and the SDR as a global currency.
There’s a clear pattern here. No doubt, the IMF will use the next crisis – which promises to be even bigger than the last – to increase its prominence and that of the SDR.
As you might imagine, the average citizen can’t use SDRs…
Your neighbors don’t have any in their wallets. And that isn’t going to change.
Instead, SDRs are primarily used by governments and supranational organizations like the UN, IMF, and World Bank.
SDRs are dangerous. They give the government – in this case, a global government – more power. They’re a bridge to a powerful global monetary authority, and eventually a global currency.
At some point, they’ll also likely be used to price major commodities like oil and gold, and possibly be the reporting currency for major multinational companies. Airlines already use them to denominate some of their liabilities.
Many global elites – the types that gather in Davos, Bilderberg, etc. – are huge fans of the SDR.
Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of PIMCO, is a huge advocate of the SDR. The infamous George Soros is also a big fan.
Expect to see the SDR used in more and more places as the globalists accelerate their push for it.
For now, the U.S. dollar is still the world’s premier reserve currency…
That’s why people and businesses everywhere in the world take U.S. dollars. For decades, they’ve had little choice about it.
Today, the biggest U.S. exports are dollars and government debt. The U.S. government can create unlimited quantities of both from nothing.
It requires no effort to “print” U.S. dollars, which can be exchanged for real things like French wine, Italian cars, electronics from Korea, or Chinese manufactured goods.
This creates an almost unlimited demand for U.S. dollars. And that helps keep price inflation in the U.S. much lower than it would otherwise be.
It’s hard to overstate how much this unique setup benefits the U.S. It’s the bedrock of the U.S. financial system.
The French have deemed it an “exorbitant privilege.”
The SDR is bad for the U.S. dollar…
If the globalists get their way, the dollar would no longer be the world’s premier reserve currency. The SDR would. And the IMF, not the U.S., would reap the enormous benefits of the “exorbitant privilege.”
In other words, the U.S. dollar would become merely a local currency, like the Canadian dollar or the Mexican peso.
Losing the exorbitant privilege – and all the artificial demand it creates – would mean massive price inflation for those holding U.S. dollars. And there’s pretty much nothing Americans can do about it.
As I mentioned earlier, the IMF has used past financial crises to bolster its prominence and that of the SDR. Now, we’re headed for a financial crisis of historic proportions as the “everything bubble” blows up under Trump’s watch.
Frankly, the next crisis is going to be the Big One. And I’m certain the IMF and the globalists will use it to advance their agenda.
Now, there’s only one way Trump can fight back – and you can profit no matter what happens.
I’ll explain how in part two of this story in Saturday’s Dispatch. Stay tuned…
Chief Analyst, The Casey Report
P.S. A major coup is about to unfold on U.S. soil… And almost nothing can stop it.
Deeply connected and powerful cartels within Washington, New York, and Silicon Valley… who have major influence on financial and political policies… have finally crafted a foolproof conspiracy to sabotage Donald Trump’s presidency…
And replace it with a new type of “socialist state.”
It will be a new kind of America, with a new vision and new policies… But there are steps you can take to prepare today. I just released an urgent presentation with all the details. Go here to view it now.
By Justin Spittler, editor, Casey Daily Dispatch
“Buy when there’s blood in the streets.”
Practically every investor has heard this saying. But so few of us act on this.
That’s because it’s hard to speculate on a country when it looks like things are falling apart. As I showed you in yesterday’s Dispatch, it’s even harder to do so when a country is getting nothing but bad press.
But buying at “the point of maximum pessimism” can lead to huge returns. Today’s chart is proof of this.
You’re looking at the performance of the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) since the start of 2018. TUR invests in a basket of Turkish stocks.
You can see that Turkish stocks were in free fall for most of last year. But the sell-off reached a fever pitch in early August, right after Trump threatened to impose serious economic sanctions on Turkey.
Regular readers might recall that I was in Istanbul during all of this. I had a ringside seat to the action… and I could tell you that panic was in the air.
But you could have made a fortune by buying during this panic selling. After all, TUR is up 41% since it bottomed in mid-August. The S&P 500, for perspective, is flat over the same period.
Of course, Turkish stocks were anything but a “no brainer” at the time. But the dialogue surrounding Turkey was downright apocalyptic. And yet, Turkish stocks went on to enjoy a monster rally.
Keep this in mind the next time a country gets nothing but bad news. It could turn out to be a tremendous buying opportunity.
– Justin Spittler
A reader responds to subscriber Brett’s feedback…
Brett is short on facts himself. The polar icecaps are irrelevant. They float on sea water, already displacing their mass. If you fill a glass with water and ice cubes and they melt does the glass run over? He fails to mention that the mass of ice in Antarctica is growing rapidly. A brief historical review of Earth makes it clear we are much more likely to freeze to death than burn up. I’m always amazed when I encounter people who actually believe humans can change the weather. Governments like to create problems only they can solve.
And another takes a fairly diplomatic stance…
I’m not a scientist, so I’m not going to debate what causes climate change or whether it even exists in the forms being put to us by media, and nor should the 99.999999% of people who have not studied and checked the veracity of actual climate data. I accept there are a multitude of reasons climate change could exist, human actions being but one.
However, I will say that anybody who believes we can all be saved by a tax is extremely naive at a minimum. Those people are empowering governments to treat their taxpayers as chumps.
As always, please send your thoughts, questions, and concerns to [email protected].