The analysis presented is the view of a pure market technician. There is no attempt to present any fundamental data or information as that is not the expertise of the analyst.
With Natural Gas hitting new highs, oil almost there again, silver about to go through 7 month support and gold a real teaser these are very interesting and exciting times in the futures markets. For a mid-week round-up, let’s get to it.
The mid week table includes the Wednesday’s prices, used as if they were the end of week prices for the purpose of calculating the technical information.
Gold: Primary trend remains bullish but the recent action suggests a head and shoulder reversal potential. Dec. future price must stay above $440 or else the H&S neckline would be broken with a $424 projection.
Silver: Looking weak and back to the lower support at $6.90. A move to $6.80 could have serious implications for silver trend.
Palladium: Continues to move lower after the P&F break but showing some signs of wanting to take a breather and maybe rally a little.
Platinum: Attempting to rally after the plunge but lack of interest suggests rally will not last long.
Copper: Although outwardly looking strong, there are signs that a gentle top is being formed under the volatility.
West Texas Light Sweet Crude: Although P&F still projects into the $70s the latest upside action has been looking weaker and weaker. A top of some sort may be close by.
Natural Gas: Despite the new highs the recent action continues to show weakness and may not last much longer.
Heating Oil: Staying within the second and third FAN trend lines and trying to rally back up towards the second line. Rally not all that strong and not expected to reach the line.
Unleaded Gas: The suggested rally to the 185 level has arrived. Not expected to go much further. Down side the most likely from here.
Australian Dollar: Taking a rest while on its way towards lower lows. Any further rally should end before .76
British Pound: Looks like a minor correction with odds of continuing the upside. Not expected to go below 1.78.
Canadian Dollar: Broke through P&F resistance level and projecting to $0.99. BUT first must breach the final resistance high at $0.86.
European Euro: Reaction was short lived but so might be the rally. Next few days should tell if future is still okay or if it has turned lower for some time.
Japanese Yen: Lateral trend and having a hard time really getting into a bullish mode.
Mexican Peso: Top now confirmed with support break. The down side looks like it will continue for some time with occasional rallies.
Swiss Franc: Bull could not take hold but bear is no longer in control. Overall, lateral trend seems to be the operative word.
U.S. Dollar Index: Suggested strength reversal has come and is continuing. P&F projection to 82.5 is still operative.
Merv Burak, CMT
Hudson Aero/Systems Inc.
Market Technical Information Group
During the day Merv practices his engineering profession as a Consulting Aerospace Engineer. Once the sun goes down and night descends upon the earth Merv dons his other hat as a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and tries to decipher what’s going on in the securities markets. As an underground surveyor in the gold mines of Canada’s Northwest Territories in his youth, Merv has a soft spot for the gold industry and has developed several Gold Indices reflecting different aspects of the industry. As a basically lazy individual Merv’s driving focus is to KEEP IT SIMPLE.
To find out more about Merv’s various Gold Indices and component stocks, please visit Merv’s Precious Metals Central. There you will find samples of the Indices plus other publications of interest to precious metals investors.
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