The analysis presented is the view of a pure market technician. There is no attempt to present any fundamental data or information as that is not the expertise of the analyst.
The mid week table includes the Wednesday’s prices, used as if they were the end of week prices for the purpose of calculating the technical information.
Looking at long term charts of the metals and energies, the only comment is WOW! How much longer will it last?
Gold: Trying and trying but maybe THIS TIME gold will finally break into new bull market highs. Otherwise, Ho-Hum continues.
Silver: Stuck between heading for the dumper or going into a new bull. Maybe a continuation of the long term lateral trend is still the best bet.
Palladium: Almost a month long lateral trend seems not to be ending.
Platinum: Gradually moving higher but not with the confirmation of volume (or speculative) activity.
Copper: Support at the 160 level seems to be getting weaker and weaker. Watch out for a breach.
West Texas Light Sweet Crude: A little bounce but not expected to continue yet. Long term we still have a projection to the upper $70’s.
Natural Gas: Nothing “natural” about this gas. Bounce off upper gap level but gap is still expected to be filled . Requires $10.10 to fill.
Heating Oil: Bouncing off our third FAN trend line while Stochastic Oscillator was in the oversold zone. Bounce may halt near the 2.1 level.
Unleaded Gas: Bounce off solid up trend line. Reaction may be over. Volume and momentum action still positive.
Australian Dollar: Trend seems to be towards higher prices but volume action says “watch out”.
British Pound: Action continues to be bullish with higher prices suggested ahead.
Canadian Dollar: Just about into new bull market highs. Once it hits $0.86 it would then project to $1.01. Can the Canadian economy stand it?
European Euro: Having a very hard time trying to get any real recovery going.
Japanese Yen: What can you say? The lateral trend continues until that strong resistance $0.92 level gets breached.
Mexican Peso: The rally is over and the down side has taken over with a vengeance.
Swiss Franc: Showing weakness. Support at the 0.784 level must hold.
U.S. Dollar Index: Despite recent rally the pressure is still towards lower prices. The recent attempted bull market hit the long term P&F down trend line and that was the end.
It should be noted that the comments in this section are based upon the actions of the Indices futures market and not upon the actions of the respective Indices themselves.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Just can’t seem to break into new recent highs and down it goes.
Nikkei 225 Index: Up, up and away still seems to be the direction of least resistance but some weakness is coming in.
NASDAQ 100 Index: Still above its up trend line but a reaction may be starting to take it below.
Russell 2000 Index: Rally may be ending. High volume activity may be indicative of a top.
S&P 500 Composite Index: Short term up trend line broken. Down side may be the action over the next few days.
Eurodollar: Weakness shown in recent trading activity.
Federal Funds 30-Day: Showing weakness but wait for further confirmation.
Treasury Notes 2-Year: Recovery action must now prove itself. Upside from here or else it breaks the up trend line.
Treasury Notes 5-Year: A normal reaction and now let’s see an upside continuation.
Treasury Notes 10-Year: Question is if the down side will continue or if the recent rally will continue. Unfortunately, weakness is showing up.
Treasury Bonds 30-Year: Same comment as above for 10-Year.
See you on Monday
Merv Burak, CMT
Hudson Aero/Systems Inc.
Market Technical Information Group
During the day Merv practices his engineering profession as a Consulting Aerospace Engineer. Once the sun goes down and night descends upon the earth Merv dons his other hat as a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and tries to decipher what’s going on in the securities markets. As an underground surveyor in the gold mines of Canada’s Northwest Territories in his youth, Merv has a soft spot for the gold industry and has developed several Gold Indices reflecting different aspects of the industry. As a basically lazy individual Merv’s driving focus is to KEEP IT SIMPLE.
To find out more about Merv’s various Gold Indices and component stocks, please visit Merv’s Precious Metals Central. There you will find samples of the Indices plus other publications of interest to precious metals investors.
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