It was “déjà vu all over again” as Yogi Berra once said. All we’re waiting for is the resolution…either up, or down.
Gold hit its low price tick of the day [around $1,759 spot] at 10:00 a.m. in Hong Kong…11:00 a.m. in Tokyo…on their Thursday morning. From that low, the price had rallied about seventeen bucks by ten minutes after the Comex open in New York…and $1,776.00 spot was the high tick of the day at that point.
And that, as they say, was that. In less than twenty-five minutes, the usual not-for-profit sellers had sold the gold price back down below the New York open…and the subsequent rally was dispatched in the usual way at precisely 11:00 a.m. Eastern time. By noon the selling was done…and the gold price traded quietly into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close.
A cursory glance of the 3-day Kitco gold chart below shows the “Groundhog Day” phenomena on Thursday….Wednesday…and Tuesday, was in full cry during the Comex trading session in New York on those days.
Gold finished the day at $1,767.20 spot…up $4.60. Net volume was around 122,000 contracts.
It was precisely the same story in silver, as the continuing rally at the Comex open was cut off at the knees less than ten minutes after the open. The only real difference was that silver’s secondary high came at 10:45 a.m. Eastern time, whereas gold’s high came precisely fifteen minutes later. Other than that, the gold and silver charts looked mostly identical.
Silver’s low tick at 10:00 a.m. in Hong Kong was around $33.75…and it’s high tick at 8:30 a.m. in New York was recorded as $34.44 spot.
Silver closed on Thursday at $34.00 right on the nose…up the magnificent sum of 2 cents.
As has been the case nearly every day for the last month, both silver and gold would have closed substantially higher if “day boyz” hadn’t been running their usual interference.
The dollar index had a price pattern on Thursday very similar to the price pattern that it had on Wednesday…a bit of a rally in early Far East trading, with the high [80.18] coming mid-morning in Hong Kong…and then a long, slow slide to its low of the day [79.75] in New York…which came at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. From that point, the index gained back a bit of that loss, closing at 79.79…down 31 basis points from Wednesday’s close.
The gold and silver prices pretty much followed the dollar index movements right up until about ten minutes after the Comex open yesterday morning…and at that point, both got clubbed to death by JPMorgan et al. Nothing free market about that…and as I pointed out further up, gold and silver wanted to sail, but every attempt was sold off.
I’ll have more on the dollar index in ‘The Wrap’ section at the bottom of this column.
The gold stocks gapped up a bit at the open, sagged, and then moved quickly higher. The high came about 10:45 a.m…fifteen minutes before gold’s high tick of the day. From that high, the gold stocks got sold off gently as the trading day progressed…and the HUI finished up only 0.43%…the same percentage gain it had on Wednesday.
For the most part, the silver stocks that make up Nick Laird’s Silver Sentiment Index did better than their golden counterparts…and the SSI finished up 0.97%.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The CME’s Daily Delivery Report showed that 8 gold and 2 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Monday. Nothing to see here.
There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday…but an authorized participant redeemed 823,273 shares of SLV…and had this silver shipped to parts unknown. Since the beginning of October, a net one million ounces of silver have been withdrawn from SLV. During the same time period…634,795 troy ounces of gold have been added to GLD.
For the third day in a row, there was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.
The Comex-approved depositories were busy on Wednesday. They reported receiving 764,222 troy ounces of silver…all of it into JPMorgan’s depository….and shipped 717,073 troy ounces out the door.
JPMorgan’s silver stash is getting up there. It currently stands at 23.35 million ounces…and has now surpassed the holdings of its partner-in-crime[?], Scotia Mocatta. But as I said before, there’s no way of knowing how much of this silver is held for its clients…and how much is held for its in-house trading account. The link to Wednesday’s activity is here.
Here’s a chart that Australian reader Wesley Legrand sent me way last night…and he admitted that he shamelessly ripped it from an essay that Peter Degraaf wrote. It’s the 1-year chart of the XAU divided by the S&P500 Index…and despite the fact that I’m on the lookout for “in your ear”…this chart looks bullish to me…touch wood!
I have a lot of really good stories for you today…and I hope you can find the time to read all the ones that interest you.
The facts are clear – the big 4 (through JPMorgan) sold short over 20,000 additional contracts (100 million oz) over the past 10 weeks. If you thought silver and gold prices were being capped over the past three weeks, you weren’t imagining things. JPMorgan, by itself in my opinion, did the price capping. You don’t have to be Einstein to know that silver prices would have been significantly higher (by $20 or $30) without JPMorgan’s selling of 100 million paper ounces. In all my years, I have never seen a more blatant display of manipulation. It is truly alarming. – Silver analyst Ted Butler, 06 October 2012
Like I said in this space on Thursday, there’s nothing I can add to what I’ve already spoken about at the top of this column. It was “déjà vu all over again” as Yogi Berra once said. All we’re waiting for is the resolution…either up, or down.
Here is the 3-year Dollar Index chart. I’m not much of a technician, but it sure does look like a ‘head and shoulders’ pattern is in the final stages of development, as it looks similar to the chart pattern of mid-2010. We’ll see.
At the moment, the dollar index is struggling to break above, and then close above, the 80.00 mark…and it’s numerous attempts to do that have not been successful. Here’s the 6-month Dollar Index chart on its own. Note the upcoming ‘death cross’…as the 50-day moving average is about to cut through the 200-day moving average to the downside.
Like the gold and silver prices that I believe have been held in place for the last few weeks, the dollar index seems to be acting the same way. And since JPMorgan et al can pretty much ‘paint the tape’ when it comes to the precious metals prices…nothing would surprise me with the dollar index either.
Gold and silver prices were dead in the water in Far East trading on their Friday…and little has changed now that London has been trading for a bit more than two hours. Volumes are light. The dollar index, which had been comatose through all of Far East trading, fell off a 20 basis point cliff just a few minutes after the London open…but there’s little sign of that in the PM prices, as gold is only up a buck…and silver is down 15 cents as I hit the ‘send’ button at 5:13 a.m. Eastern time.
Today, at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time, we get the Commitment of Traders Report for positions held at the close of Comex trading on Tuesday, October 9th. I’m expecting some improvement in the Commercial net short positions of both gold and silver, but nothing earth-shattering.
Every Friday at this point, I post the following blurb on behalf of Casey Research. And just to let you know that I eat the Casey Research cooking myself, I own fairly substantial positions in every silver producer that’s covered in Casey Research‘s International Speculator…ALL of them…and have for many years…and I’m delighted with their respective performances!
Please don’t forget that quality investment advice pays…it never costs!!!
With gold and silver shares continuing to move higher with some conviction now, there’s still an opportunity to either readjust your portfolio, or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold…and I respectfully suggest that you take out a trial subscription to either Casey Research‘s International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations…as well as the archives. Don’t forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.
I have no idea how Friday will turn out when Comex trading begins in New York later this morning…but I’m getting feelings of “déjà vu all over again”. We’ll see.
Enjoy your weekend…or what’s left of it, depending where you live on Planet Earth…and I’ll see you here tomorrow.
Freegold Ventures Limited is a North American gold exploration company with three gold projects in Alaska. Current projects include Golden Summit, Vinasale and Rob. Both Vinasale and Golden Summit host NI 43-101 Compliant Resource Calculations.
The 2012 exploration program includes additional drilling on both Golden Summit and Vinasale. An updated NI 43-101 resource was calculated on Golden Summit in December 2011 and using a 0.35 g/t cutoff is 14,840,000 tonnes @0.66 g/t Au – hosts 316,000 ounces in the indicated category and 50,0460,000 tonnes @0.61 g/t Au – hosts 991,000 ounces in the inferred category. Drilling has been underway on this road accessible project since mid January. To date over 36,000 feet have been drilled since January on the project, of which 30,000 feet have been aimed at resource expansion. Drilling remains ongoing. An updated NI 43-101 is expected to be completed in Q3.
Additional drilling is also underway on Vinasale. Vinasale currently hosts recently updated NI 43-101 resource calculation of 49,320,000 mt @1.09 g/t for a total of 1,735,000 contained gold ounces in the inferred category using a 0.5 g/t cutoff. Please visit our website for more information.