By Konstantin Ogurchenkov, analyst, Casey Research
By 2040, 68% of global car sales will be electric.
A big stretch from only 6% last year.
How will we get there? Politicians and firms are backing up this clean energy trend.
For example, countries are rolling out bans on the sale of fossil-fuel cars. In Norway, it’ll go into effect in 2025. In Indonesia, it’ll be in 2050.
Plus, businesses are moving towards carbon-free vehicles.
This trend is inevitable…
To make the green energy transition happen, carmakers must deal with two major concerns:
High electric vehicle (EV) prices
Longer charging times
Overcoming these challenges will make EVs more appealing to the masses.
It will be a giant shift in the sector… and a chance to make money on this trend.
But before we dive in… if this is your first time reading the Dispatch, welcome. If you’ve been here before, welcome back.
I’m Konstantin Ogurchenkov, and I’ve been a Casey Research analyst since 2015. I’ve worked under great newsletter editors like Louis James and Doug Casey. And for the past several years, Dave Forest and John Pangere. (In fact, Dave and I are neighbors.)
I’ve learned a lot from them. And now, I want to share some of these money-making skills, as well as the analysis expertise I picked up from the greats.
Here is what to expect from the EV industry in the near future, and how to profit…
Billions Already Committed
Recently, carmakers posted bold outlooks for the coming years.
The three top U.S. automakers plan to put billions of dollars into the EV switch:
General Motors (GM) – $35 billion by 2025
Toyota – $35 billion by 2030
Ford – $30 billion by 2025
It’s obvious they are preparing to shift into mass EV production.
What’s more… this clean transition has strong support from governments and investors:
The U.S. government is giving tax credit to people who buy EVs. You can be eligible for up to $7,500 of tax credit, and there are plans to raise it to $12,500.
Investors are looking for ESG-aligned companies, like EV makers. This is another huge trend that my colleague Andrey Dashkov is following here.
The wide adoption of EVs will bring carmakers huge profits. Soon, it will cost more to produce a fossil-fuel car than an electric car.
For example, industry watchdogs expect EV production costs to plummet. Next year, a 350-mile range EV will cost the same as a mid-class sedan.
Like a non-hybrid version of the Toyota Camry.
By 2025, the Camry will cost more to build than an EV…
Which isn’t great for old-style carmakers.
Costs Going Down
You might be wondering, how will EVs cost less than regular cars? It’s the opposite of what’s happening right now.
Today, many EV makers struggle with making money.
Tesla began posting net profit only in 2020. Before then, it was losing money every single year.
Yet, that’s all about to change.
The cost of EVs will drop… due to lower prices of Li-ion batteries.
These are the core of EVs, which replace the internal combustion engine (ICE).
Their cost dropped from $1,200 per kWh in 2010 to $132 in 2021.
That’s a huge fall over 11 years. And the future target stands at $45 per kWh by 2035.
It won’t be easy as inflation figures are heading higher. But it’s an ultimate goal for the industry.
Big names like GM and Ford will likely get there. On their own or via reliable battery makers.
On another positive note, this year, Americans will have 100 EV models to choose from… enough to satisfy any taste.
Starting from a tiny Mini Cooper with 110 miles of range. To the Tesla Model S Long Range with 405 miles in range.
Firms are also upgrading their EV fleets. In the next five years (according to a survey by Corporate Electric Vehicle Alliance), companies with over a trillion dollars in annual sales will need 330,000 EVs.
This includes giants like Amazon, Best Buy, DHL, Hertz, and many more… which will only make the EV transition more inevitable.
An Unstoppable Trend
Aside from the price – which is on its way down – EV charging time is one of the major concerns for consumers.
The good news is, it’s set to improve.
The chart below shows the projected charging rate, which measures how many miles EVs can get from one minute of charge.
As you can see, the charging rate is about 10 miles per minute right now… but it’s heading to 30 miles per minute by 2026.
The wide adoption of EVs will help optimize charging time.
More chargers across our day-to-day commute means we can plug in our EVs almost anywhere.
For instance, the UK already passed a cutting-edge law. All new buildings across the country will require EV chargers.
No doubt, it’s going to happen all around the world.
And the current economic state is the perfect time to act.
At the recent dip in stock prices, we can invest in EVs at a big discount.
Our Way to Profit
At Casey Research, we got into the EV space at an early stage.
Subscribers to our paid advisories had a chance to gain over 1,500%. In fact, this pick is still open. And even with the recent market weakness, it’s still at over 1,500% gain.
We also have a chance to close a few others for triple-digit gains. You can find out how to get into our best EV picks – including how we locked in a 2,805% gain – right here.
Otherwise, I have a simple way to get into the EV space…
Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (DRIV). It has $1.35 billion of assets under management and tracks 76 EV stocks.
This includes major car and battery makers. With a 0.68% expense ratio, it’s a simple way to invest in the unfolding EV trend.
Analyst, Casey Research