Chris’ note: Today, I turn once again to my friend Nick Giambruno – chief analyst for The Casey Report and Crisis Investing – for another rare money-making opportunity.
As regular readers know, Nick is one of the best in the business at identifying and profiting from the world’s biggest trends.
Last time we spoke, Nick told me the truth behind the “vaping crisis”… and how it’s opening up an opportunity for the ages in cannabis stocks.
But that’s not the only bet you should be making today…
Below, Nick tells me about another hated industry that’s ripe for a rally. It’s one he’s been covering for readers for years… But he’s never seen anything like what he’s seeing today…
Chris Reilly, managing editor, Casey Daily Dispatch: Nick, last time we spoke, you explained why now’s the time to buy cannabis stocks. What other opportunities are you seeing today?
Nick Giambruno, chief analyst, The Casey Report: Yes… Simply put, there’s a ridiculous mispricing happening right now in one of the world’s most hated sectors…
I’m talking about the oil industry.
It’s almost as if everyone forgot what happened on September 14.
As you know, that’s when one of the most significant moments in recent military history occurred.
A swarm of drones attacked the world’s most important oil facility, in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia. There were at least 17 direct hits.
The highly precise attacks on Saudi Arabia’s most valuable assets were a stunning success. Within minutes, they crippled nearly half of Saudi oil production, around 5.7 million barrels, or 5% of the world’s daily output.
It led to the biggest supply shock in the history of the oil market:
Following the attacks, Brent crude futures – a key oil benchmark – skyrocketed over 20%. According to Bloomberg, it was the biggest single-day increase in Brent crude futures.
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of this unprecedented and massive attack is how the market shrugged it off. In the days following the attack, oil and oil stocks gave up a lot of their gains.
In fact, prices are down 8% since their peak following the attack, and down 27% from their 2018 highs.
Chris: Why do you think that is?
Nick Giambruno: It seems the market believes the Saudis can make up for lost production with their reserves and repair their damaged facilities quickly… which they can’t. The Wall Street Journal notes that the Saudis need to buy new state-of-the-art customized equipment, which only the US or Europe can manufacture.
It will take many months, not weeks as the Saudis initially told everyone, to obtain the new equipment and fully repair the facilities. Further, the market also seems to believe there won’t be more incidents like this, which is ridiculous.
This unprecedented attack makes escalating actions almost inevitable.
I think it’s only the beginning – a small example of what could really happen in the case of a full-fledged war with Iran, which grows more likely by the hour.
I think the market is being incredibly complacent in the face of the most significant attack on the global oil industry ever. And the likelihood of things getting worse – and something like this happening again – is high.
Chris: Why’s that?
Nick Giambruno: Because this attack was the very definition of an asymmetric bet – which is what I specialize in.
Let me explain quickly. This attack was carried out by a few drones, which maybe cost a few thousand dollars each… The whole cost of carrying out the attack is estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Yet the damage inflicted is measured in the billions.
That’s like a 3,000-fold return on investment. Again, the very definition of an asymmetric bet. Why wouldn’t something like this happen again?
Drones have proliferated to the point where many people can access and use them to target strategic infrastructure or in a way that really changes the nature of warfare.
Low-flying, low-tech, and inexpensive drones are cheap, easy to use, and extremely hard to intercept. Something like this is likely to happen again.
Chris: What should speculators take away from this?
Nick Giambruno: The first thing speculators should realize is that this is actually a gift in the oil markets. It’s handing us a rare speculative opportunity by mispricing the risk in the market.
The second is that there are going to be companies that develop defensive technologies to protect against drone attacks. Companies that create a solution for drones are going to be big winners in the future.
Chris: Yes, I think you’re right about that. It sounds like we should have a full interview on drones next… seriously interesting stuff. But how should readers play the mispriced risk in the market?
Nick Giambruno: In this environment, you want to own the highest-quality oil stocks. That means two things: one, companies that have done well during turbulent times in the past; and two, companies that aren’t heavily exposed to trouble in the Middle East.
As Middle East supply disruptions cause oil prices to skyrocket around the world, companies that fulfill these criteria will be your ticket to profits.
One way to gain exposure is by buying the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) or a similar oil fund. But like any fund, it’s also filled with some “duds.”
The best way to profit is by checking out the oil companies in my Casey Report portfolio. We currently have four of the top names in the industry – and all are strong buys today.
Chris: Sounds great. Thanks for your time, Nick.
Nick Giambruno: My pleasure.
Chris’ note: As Nick just mentioned, he has four of the world’s top oil companies in his Casey Report model portfolio.
It’s all detailed in his urgent special report, The Third Oil Shock: How to Make 1,250% From the Coming Oil Crisis.
And they’re all screaming buys at today’s levels. Go here to see how you can access these names today.