In This Issue.

* Dollar is broadly weaker today.
* German IFO is stronger than expected.
* No risk premium for pesos.
* I'm late, I'm late!

And Now. Today's A Pfennig For Your Thoughts.

Oil Jumps Higher Helping Petrol Currencies.

Good day.. And a Happy Friday to one and all! It was chilly outside again this morning. I saw on the news station I have on here that binge drinking for women is on the rise. And it reminded me of a famous comedian that used to say: The more she drinks the better I look. HAHHAHA! The beautiful voice of Dusty Springfield greets me this morning with her song: Son of a Preacher Man. I could just sit and listen to her sing for hours. Well, round one with the insurance company went to Chuck, but I have to step back into the ring today. And that brings up the question why is a boxing match held in ring, when It's held in a square?   I'm going to start off the discussion with: I was sick last night well into the night, and had to get up this morning to go to work, do you think you can see to it that get this medicine that helps me when I get sick?

Well, there's some boxing going on in the Eurozone and it appears that it will continue, with Greece doing the rope-a-dope, and every now and then getting a quick jab in, but for the most part, having to duck and cover, duck and cover.  The euro was stronger in the overnight trading than it currently is trading:  (1.0825)  The German Business Climate as measured by the think tank IFO, was stronger than expected at 108.6 VS 108.4, and stronger than the previous month's number of 107.9. And that news got the euro all lathered up, but then this morning, news leaked that the discussions with Greece are revealing wide differences. German Chancellor Merkel, said in an interview, ” everything must be done to prevent Greece from running out of money before it reaches a cash-for-reform deal with its international creditors.”   

For the most part today, the dollar is weaker against most currencies, except the New Zealand dollar / kiwi, that keeps getting sold on the negative comments by the Asst. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Gov., McDermott on Wednesday night. There's a feeling here that this has been way overdone, and there could be blood in the streets after two days of getting whacked for what some people think, including me, were NOT very dovish comments. But as the old saying, and my longtime friend, Ed, used to remind me all the time: “The Markets are never wrong”.

So. Did you notice the big jump in the price of WTI (Oil) yesterday? At one point in the day it was up over $2!!!!  And this morning it sits at just a smidgen below a $2 gain from yesterday morning's price. I really only care about this for 2 reasons. 1. Oil is an anti-dollar asset, and 2. It helps the Petrol currencies. Yesterday saw the Norwegian krone up over 1% in one day, the Russian ruble gain, the Canadian dollar/ loonie, and the Brazilian real. Oh, and the U.K. pound sterling. the Mexican peso sat this one out, due to a weak inflation print yesterday, that pretty much says that Mexican can't hike rates right now, and as I've explained many times in the past. Without higher rates, acting as a “risk premium” the peso can't attract the foreign investments it needs to rise.

I did want to mention though, the stealth-like move in the real lately. Every day when I get to the currency roundup, I look at the real price and say, “it's a little bit stronger today, I should mention that” And then the next day, I forget, and say the same thing, and then I rinse and repeat. But not today! Maybe being up and sick most of the night has my memory working this morning. Nah, I think it had more to do with the fact that I looked at the price this morning and it was back below a 3 handle! No longer stealth-like, now that the real has gotten under the 3 handle, people/ investors will begin to notice it and say, “how'd that happen?”  And I'll say, well, I wanted to mention it for a couple of weeks now. And they'll say, “Yeah right, and I have a bridge for sale!”

Today's U.S. Data Cupboard finally gets us in the mood for real data with the March prints of Durable Goods Orders and Capital Goods Shipments. Right now, both are expected to finally show a positive print. That would be good news for once! But then last month was supposed to be a good print, and both were down -1.4%! 

Yesterday,  the U.S. Data Cupboard printed an awful New Home Sales report for March yesterday, thus cancelling out the good news from the Existing Home Sales the day before. For those of you keeping score at home New Home Sales dropped 11.4% in March VS February. The print was much worse than was expected by the markets, and followed the 2 previous months where amazing as it may be, those prints were not affected by the “bad weather” that claimed casualties in most data. So, like I've said before, the “bad weather” card, gets played by the Gov't whenever it appears things don't look so good.  And once again it was played yesterday, but this is where they get caught in the spider's web of whatever you want to call it. Because there was no mention of “bad weather” when the Existing Home Sales printed positive the day before.

Gold is getting whacked again this morning, down $6 to $1,187 and change. the Blue Lights are flashing once again, in my opinion which could be wrong. The Bloomberg is running a story that talks about how the price of Gold is being paralyzed by the Indecision on the Fed's next rate move. Oh come on, hasn't that all been already priced into Gold?  I guess it hasn't. But makes no sense to me. Never has, Never will.

To recap. The dollar is broadly weaker this morning, except VS kiwi, as what appears to the markets as negative comments / dovish comments are still lingering on kiwi. It appears to me as something that is overdone. Greece and the Eurozone keep boxing, with Greece mostly doing the rope-a-dope, but it appears that their differences are wide and it's just a mess once again and that has hurt the euro, which was stronger overnight on a stronger than expected German IFO, and the price of oil jumped $2 yesterday, allowing the petrol currencies of Norway, Brazil, Russia and Canada to rally.

Currencies today 4/24/15. American Style: A$ .7805, kiwi .7575, C$ .8255, euro 1.0820, sterling 1.5140, Swiss $1.0470,  . European Style: rand 12.1490, krone 7.8075, SEK 8.6355, forint 277.50, zloty 3.6955, koruna 25.2850, RUB 51.09, yen 119.35, sing 1.3355, HKD 7.7500, INR 63.56, China 6.1241, pesos 15.34, BRL 2.9700, Dollar Index 97.18, Oil $57.56, 10-year 1.96%, Silver $15.82, Platinum $1,130.45, Palladium $772.00, and Gold. $1,198.05

For What It's Worth. Following up on the Housing data, I saw some very disturbing things in friend, Bill Bonner's Diary of a Rogue Economist letter (http://bonnerandpartners.com/category/parent/dre/)  regarding Mortgage giant Fannie Mae. Lets' listen in to Bill.

“Mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae just debuted its new “HomePath Ready Buyer Program,” which lets first-time homebuyers get up to a 3% rebate of a home's purchase price if they buy a Fannie Mae property, so long as they complete an online homebuyer education course which costs $75.

The new HomePath Ready Buyer Program, as described by Fannie Mae, could create $4,500 in savings on a $150,000 home for first-time buyers (defined as borrowers who have not owned a home in the prior three years).

In addition to the 3% rebate, Fannie Mae will refund the cost of the homebuyer education course.

This new program comes after Melvin Watt, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, announced last December that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would soon start buying mortgage securities backed by 30-year loans with just 3% down payments, which banks largely halted delivering two years ago, instead demanding 20% down.”

Chuck again.  So, is that not scary and disturbing to you? We've gone back in time, and pulled out 3% down payments on home loans (because they worked so well last time) and now we're rebating the price of the home that will only have 3% down.   I see major problems with this, but apparently not to anyone else in the regulatory agencies that monitor this stuff. Bill finished up his thoughts on this with this ditty: “Stimulus is what they call it. A debt trap is what it really is”.

That's it for today. TGIF! Well. My beloved Cardinals took 2 of 3 from the Nationals, beating their ace, that ironically is from St. Louis, yesterday. And ever since I talked bad about their hitting with men on base Wednesday morning, they've begun to sting the ball again, so I guess I gave them a pep talk, like I did the Blues the other day! HAHAHAHA!  Went to little Everett's spring program for his pre-school last night. Those kids are so darn cute, and they love to sing songs! Sons Andrew and Alex went to this pre-school, my wife used to teach at this pre-school and now my grandkids, Delaney Grace and Everett. I wonder if I'll ever stop going to this pre-school for shows, I guess that would be a sad day, eh?  My wife is leaving me at home alone tomorrow, for a week! At least when Alex was at home, and not at college yet, we used to order pizzas, watch games on TV, and be “real men”. Now it's just me. All by myself. but unlike the words to the Eric Carmen song, where he sings: All by myself, don't want to be all by myself any more. I don't care if I'm by myself, I'm a big boy, I can take care of myself, contrary to what Jen and Christine believe! HA!  OK. it's time to go. I'm later this morning, because I tried to make up for the lost sleep last night, by sleeping later this morning. I'm not sure it worked!  But, I will get off this bus now, and hope you have a Fantastico Friday!

Chuck Butler
Managing Director
EverBank Global Markets