By Andrey Dashkov, analyst, Casey Research
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Electric vehicles (EVs) will transform global transportation.
From self-driving cars to airplanes, moving from point A to point B won’t look the same.
This isn’t only happening in the distant future, either. The change has already begun, and it will accelerate over the next several years.
But there is a problem…
There may not be enough lithium to produce the batteries powering these vehicles.
This is what mining CEOs and analysts have concluded.
It’s a major bottleneck.
And until it’s resolved, car manufacturers are facing a precarious position.
They will do whatever it takes to get their hands on every pound of lithium they can.
Of course, this is massively bullish for the metal.
In a moment, I’ll tell you what’s going on and, of course, how to profit from this crisis.
Mining CEO: There Isn’t Enough Lithium on the Face of the Earth
Stuart Crow, Chairman of an Australia-based Lake Resources (a lithium mining company), issued a warning earlier this week…
He said that there isn’t enough metal on the face of the planet “regardless of who expands and who delivers,” according to the Financial Times.
So even if lithium producers scale their production to the maximum, they will not be able to meet soaring demand from the world’s carmakers.
And this doesn’t even account for other sources of demand, such as energy storage.
For instance, over the next decade, lithium demand will surge by up to 35% per year.
And Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates this demand going up 10x before 2030.
So unless billions of dollars flow into lithium refineries, the EV revolution could take longer than investors expect.
Why?
First, manufacturers can’t infinitely scale the supply of raw lithium.
Second, China controls over 80% of the global refining capacity.
This is another major problem for the EV revolution.
China’s Dominance in Refined Lithium Is a Problem
China dominates the battery-grade lithium market…
…Making foreign governments and private companies uncomfortable. A monopoly in an industry so critical is worrisome.
To counteract that, there’s a push for building refining capacity outside of China.
For instance, Australia recently announced it’s close to refining battery-grade lithium for the first time in history.
As a reminder, Australia is the world’s biggest exporter. And it hosts 46% of the global lithium reserves.
Yet, up until now, it did not hold any refining capacity.
This is an example of overstretched supply chains.
They work when international relationships are good, and they break easily for reasons that have nothing to do with the markets.
To strengthen these networks from politics and pandemics, countries are shortening their supply chains.
This will cost a lot of money…
Total estimates point to about $19 billion in global investments needed before 2030.
In other words, the transformation needs to start now.
Unless billions of dollars begin flowing into the lithium sector, carmakers or governments won’t be able to achieve their “green” goals.
But the good news is there’s power in urgency as the world realizes the value of resilient lithium supply chains…
How to Play It
Lithium is what we call “hard tech.” Along with other metals, it’s widely used in electronics and the “green revolution.” It’s a basic building block for the forthcoming changes in transportation and energy industries.
To profit from this megatrend, consider commodity producers. They are the best way to profit from the ongoing supply crisis.
Some investors prefer to hold ETFs because of their convenience. I previously mentioned ETFs like Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT). And I still think they’re a great way to get broad exposure to the electrification trend.
But I also recommend the stocks Dave Forest, our commodities specialist, talks about in his Strategic Investor service.
These picks have a much higher chance to deliver potentially life-changing returns.
Good investing,
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Andrey Dashkov
Analyst, Casey Research
P.S. For a detailed presentation on the best metal picks… as well as various ways to play the green revolution… check out Dave Forest’s special briefing here.
He’ll show you how to position yourself for a 10x gain.