Unless you attribute the Republican victory to a vote fraud of unprecedented magnitude, the reality is that Americans thoroughly endorsed what President Bush stands for. So let's play the cards the way they've been dealt. And, perpetual optimist that I am, I think the next four years stand to be among the most profitable of a lifetime for a minority of properly positioned investors and speculators.
I'm not talking about the average American. Having sown the wind, Boobus americanus is going to reap the whirlwind. As PATRIOT 2 becomes law, what little is left of civil liberties and the Bill of Rights is going to disappear. The gigantic deficits the government will run to fund both the war and domestic programs (don't forget that Bush is the only president since the 1820's who never vetoed a bill), will take interest rates to levels we haven't seen for a generation. That will crush the current mania in real estate, and likely cause the stock market collapse that began in March 2000 to resume. Unemployment will rise. The dollar will accelerate its collapse, as foreigners, from Central Banks to the man in the street, unload their dollars, causing the price of imports to skyrocket. The American standard of living will nosedive. I expect we're looking at what will amount to a much more severe version of the 70's. And that's only if the current adventure in Iraq doesn't mutate into World War 3.
But, as I said earlier, I prefer to look at the bright side. Higher levels of inflation won't only drive capital from the dollar and conventional investments; it will drive capital into gold. It bears repeating that gold is the only financial asset that's not simultaneously someone else's liability. And that's why, as fear and uncertainty increasingly stalk the world, the world will increasingly turn to gold. Bush believes that it doesn't matter what foreigners think about the U.S. He'll find that once countries start holding their reserves in Euros and gold, the dollar will become a hot potato.
The way I see it, the dollar is on the way to reaching its intrinsic value. Which is to say an I.O.U. nothing on the part of a bankrupt government. This is a catastrophe for the average American. But boon for those who follow the trend. I fully expect to see gold trading well over $1000 well before Bush's term is over.
But the really big gains will be in mining exploration stocks. The American public is still stock-crazy, not having figured out that the unprecedented 1982-2000 bull market is over. They're still looking for the next sector to get into. When the gold stocks start to move, people will try to get in– but it will be like trying to drain the contents of Hoover Dam through a garden hose, because the market is too small to absorb any serious buying. The gold stocks will go into a bull run wilder than anything we saw with the Internet issues. (It's starting already: of the 9 precious metals stocks recommended in the September edition of the International Speculator, 6 are already up over 15%, with the top four up 61%, 63%, 102% and 150%… all in just over 3 months.)
There will be an immense transfer of wealth in the years to come from those who don't own gold, to those who do. A lot of that is almost guaranteed by Bush's profligate foreign and domestic policies. Best of all, the gains in store for us will be subject to the low capital gains taxes Bush is promising– one part of his policies I agree with.
Ed. Note: For more on Doug Casey's International Speculator, and to 6 free premium reports, including 5 Great Stocks You Can Buy Under $1.00, click here now.