Casey Research Publication
Gold & Silver Daily
"This price management situation will come to a head...and it's the dénouement that I await with great interest."
 

¤ Yesterday In Gold & Silver

Monday was another day of "slicing the salami" to the downside...as Ted Butler so often says when JPMorgan et al are in the process of one of their countless engineered price declines.

The gold price traded flat until mid-afternoon in the Hong Kong trading day...and then headed lower going into the London open shortly after that.  The London low came minutes after 11:00 a.m. GMT...and the absolute low [$1,651.00 spot] came at 8:45 a.m. in New York.

There was a slight spike to the upside once the London p.m. gold fix was in...but by lunchtime in New York, the price got sold off about five bucks from that high tick...and from there gold traded sideways into the 5:15 p.m. close of electronic trading.

All in all, it was a nothing sort of day...as gold traded within a ten dollar price range...but most importantly, set a new low for this move down.

Gold closed at $1,654.50 spot...down $4.80 on the day.  Gross volume was monstrous...a bit over 293,000 contracts...but with the February roll-overs netted out, the volume shrank to a very tiny 72,000 contracts.

Of course it's always silver that "da boyz" are after...and yesterday was no exception.  Like gold, silver traded sideways up until around 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong before getting sold down to its low of the day shortly after 11:00 a.m. local time in London.

The subsequent rally got smacked at the 8:20 a.m. Comex open as it broke through $31 to the upside.  From that point it traded around that price until shortly before lunch in New York...and then got taken down to its New York low towards the end of their lunch hour.  The tiny rally after that got snuffed out as the silver price once again approached the $31 spot mark.

The low in London was in the $30.70 spot range...and the New York low printed $30.66 spot...at least according to Kitco...but it sure didn't look like it got that low to me.

Silver closed at $30.84 spot...down 34 cents from Friday.  Volume was decent...around 39,000 contracts.

[Here's the New York Silver Spot [Bid] price so you can see the New York action in more detail.  Silver's N.Y. low of $30.66 spot must have been very brief, as there's nothing to indicate that it got anywhere near that price on this chart.

The dollar index opened at 79.74 in New York on Sunday evening...and by 8:30 a.m. in New York the following morning, it had reached its 'high' of 79.91...and then fell back to unchanged half an hour later.  From there it just chopped around in a tiny range, closing at 79.77...basically unchanged from Friday's close.

In case you hadn't noticed...the dollar index has done precisely nothing of consequence during this engineered price decline in both gold and silver that began last Wednesday at the Comex open.  This has all been a paper affair in the Comex futures market as per usual.  Nothing has changed in the real world.  Here's the 5-day dollar chart that includes all four days of that event.

The gold stocks broke into positive territory almost the moment that trading began in New York yesterday.  But it's obvious from the trading pattern during the first hour that there was a seller of some consequence lurking about, as every time the shares attempted to rally, there was someone in there to sell them off.

But it could have been a mutual fund or hedge fund unloading a position just as easily as it could have been a not-for-profit seller.

Whatever it was, these shenanigans ended shortly before 11:30 a.m. in New York...and from there the stocks traded basically flat for the rest of the day.  The HUI closed down another 0.90 percent.

Of course the silver stocks got hit hard once again...but there were a couple of green arrows amongst the silver stocks that I track on a daily basis.  Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed down 1.67%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

With the January delivery month winding down, the CME Daily Delivery Report showed that only 89 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Wednesday from within the Comex-approved depositories...and I'd be prepared to bet that we've see the end of the deliveries for this month.  Here's the link to the activity...and with the exception of 1 contract issued by JPMorgan...the 'Big 3' gold shorts were nowhere to be found.

By the way, the 'Big 3' gold shorts are also the 'Big 3' silver shorts as well...JPMorgan Chase, Bank of Nova Scotia...and HSBC USA.

First Day Notice for delivery into the February gold contract will be posted on the CME's website late on Thursday evening Eastern time...and I'll have that data for you in Friday's column.

Over at GLD yesterday, there was another withdrawal...the 13th in January so far.  This time it was 58,086 troy ounces.  SLV reported a withdrawal of 822,067 troy ounces of silver.

The new report short positions for both SLV and GLD were posted on Friday by the good folks over at shortsqueeze.com...and I forgot all about them in my Saturday column, so here they are now.  As I mentioned last week, the big 18.3 million ounce deposit into SLV came on the January 16th...the day after the cut-off for this report...so we still don't know whether that deposit was made to cover that short position...or for a new large buyer that has now entered the fray.  This is Ted Butler's theory on what's going on in SLV at the moment...if it's not short covering...and he talks about it at great length in his Saturday commentary to his paying subscribers.

But, having said all that, it was no accident that this big deposit was made on the date specified, precisely so that it wouldn't show up in the short interest data last Friday.  Now we have to wait until about February 10th to find out.  As JPMorgan et al do with the Tuesday cut-off for the weekly COT report, they are obviously now doing with SLV.  But whatever they're up to, it will remain hidden until about that date.

Anyway, the short interest in SLV increased 4.99% for the first half of January...and in GLD the short interest jumped a whopping 24.58% over the same period.  As a percentage of shares issued, the percentage of each ETF that has no physical metal backing it is as follows...in GLD it's 5.05%...and in SLV it's 5.32%.

Despite the fact that the U.S. Mint was going to start shipping silver eagles again this week, it obviously didn't sell/ship any yesterday...as there was no sales report from them.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Friday, they reported receiving 928,840 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 41,411 troy ounces out the door.  Almost all of the silver disappeared into HSBC USA's vaults.  The link to that activity is here.

Here's a chart that Washington state reader S.A. sent me on Saturday that I just know he stole from a Zero Hedge story...and it's self-explanatory.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's another chart...this one courtesy of Paul Laviers.  He 'borrowed' it from John Williams over at the shadowstats.com Internet site and, it requires no further comment from me, either.

Being a Tuesday, I have a lot of stories...and I'll leave the final edit up to you.

 

¤ Critical Reads

Hagel Warned Obama Of Rogue Pentagon Leading A 'New World Order'

As Chuck Hagel seeks support for his nomination to become Secretary of Defense, Bob Woodward has released a story about a White House trip the former Senator made in 2009.

The Washington Post reports: According to an account that Hagel later gave, and is reported here for the first time, he told Obama: “We are at a time where there is a new world order.

"We don’t control it. You must question everything, every assumption, everything they” — the military and diplomats — “tell you. Any assumption 10 years old is out of date. You need to question our role. You need to question the military. You need to question what are we using the military for."

Hagel warned the president about getting "bogged down" in Afghanistan and voiced concern over the deployment of 51,000 additional troops sent at the time to fight in the war.

No surprises here...and a must read as far as I'm concerned.  I thank Roy Stephens for today's first story.  It was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site just before lunch Eastern time yesterday...and the link is here.

Read more...

Treasury Gets a Citibanker

There was a time when you had to be successful on Wall Street to become secretary of the Treasury. Now along comes presidential nominee Jack Lew, whose only business credential is a stint at the most troubled too-big-to-fail bank.

During the darkest days of the financial crisis Mr. Lew served as the chief operating officer of Citigroup's Alternative Investments unit (CAI). When Mr. Lew took this job in January 2008, the unit was already infamous for overseeing "structured investment vehicles" that hid mortgage risks outside Citi's balance sheet. It also housed internal hedge funds that were in the process of imploding.

CAI no longer exists. At the end of Mr. Lew's first quarter on the job, the unit reported a $358 million loss. Things got much worse after that but Citi stopped breaking out CAI results in its earnings releases. The unit was eventually shuttered and many of its assets were sold.

There probably weren't many laughs at Citi during the market panic in 2008. But if someone had said that a CAI executive would be the secretary of the Treasury within five years, the line would have brought the house down.

Another item from the top drawer of the "You Can't Make This Stuff Up" filing cabinet.  I thank Washington state reader S.A. for this story.  It was posted on The Wall Street Journal's website on Sunday afternoon...and the link is here.

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JPMorgan Chief Risk Officer Hogan to Take Temporary Leave

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Risk Officer John Hogan, whose tenure included the bank’s worst-ever trading loss, will take a temporary leave for personal reasons beginning later this month, he said in a memo to staff.

“I’m looking forward to taking this time off to spend with my family and friends,” Hogan wrote in a memo obtained yesterday. Deputy Risk Officer Ashley Bacon will fill in until Hogan returns this summer, he said. Hogan discussed his plans with top managers including Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, he said.

Hogan, previously chief risk officer for the investment bank, took his post a year ago, about three months before the New York-based company disclosed a large and illiquid trading position at the chief investment office. The holdings lost more than $6.2 billion in the first nine months of last year and JPMorgan’s market value dropped more than $50 billion in the weeks after the so-called London Whale episode become public.

This sounds like a repeat of the John N. Mitchell saga when he resigned from CRP/CREEP during the Watergate scandal.  The more things change, the more they stay the same.  This story was posted on the Bloomberg website late on Friday evening Mountain Time when very few people were around.  However, they couldn't hide from West Virginia reader Elliot Simon...and the link is here.

Read more...

Wisconsin sheriff urges residents to arm themselves

A sheriff who released a radio ad urging Milwaukee-area residents to learn to handle firearms so they can defend themselves while waiting for police said Friday that law enforcement cutbacks have changed the way police can respond to crime.

In the 30-second commercial, Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke Jr. says personal safety is no longer a spectator sport.

"I need you in the game," he says.

"With officers laid off and furloughed, simply calling 911 and waiting is no longer your best option," he adds. "You can beg for mercy from a violent criminal, hide under the bed, or you can fight back. ... Consider taking a certified safety course in handling a firearm so you can defend yourself until we get there."

This is probably very true, dear reader, but it did not meet with universal praise.  This AP article was posted on the foxnews.com Internet site on Sunday...and it's courtesy of Marshall Angeles.  The link is here.

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Illinois’ credit rating downgraded; state drops to worst in the nation

A warning came Saturday morning from state treasurer Dan Rutherford (R) IL State Treasurer. The Standard and Poor’s downgrade from A to A-minus puts Illinois last on the list– and means a higher cost to borrow money.

On Wednesday, the state will issue $500 million in new bonds to pay for roads and other transportation projects. Rutherford says the credit downgrade will cost taxpayers an additional $95 million in interest,

When compared to a perfect triple-a bond rating enjoyed by other eleven states including neighboring Indiana, Iowa and Missouri.

“Our problem in Illinois is that we have not substantively and fairly addressed the state public pension issue.”

This article was posted on the wgntv.com Internet site on Saturday...and it's courtesy of Scott Pluschau.  The link is here.

Read more...

Dr. Dave Janda interviews your humble scribe

The good doctor took twenty-five minutes of his time to interview me on his "Operation Freedom" radio show over at WAAM1600 All-Talk Radio in Ann Arbor, Michigan on Sunday afternoon...and the link to the mp3 file is here...and it's always slow to load.

Read more...

Mark Carney Leaves Canada With 'Stealth QE' Rising At Fastest Pace Since 2009

As Mark Carney steps aside from his role at the Bank of Canada to undertake all manner of easy money in the UK, we thought a reflection on the 'stealth' QE that he has been engaged with, very much under the radar, in the US' neighbor-to-the-north was worthwhile.

It seems quietly and with little aplomb, Carney's BoC has grown its balance sheet by over 21% YoY - the most since 2009. If that was not enough to make someone nervous, the quantity of Canadian government bonds on the BoC's balance sheet has grown at a remarkable 46% YoY! All of this has taken place during a time when 'supposedly' the Canadian economy has been reasonably strong and foreign demand for debt high. With Canada's CAD$267 billion debt due in 2013, we suspect this 'stealth' QE will continue to rise.

This very short Zero Hedge piece was sent to me by Clive Sutherland...and the two embedded charts are definitely worth a peek.  The link is here.

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Mark Carney to put growth top of list in U.K.

The new Governor of the Bank of England has signalled that he will put growth at the heart of his approach to the job and is willing to see higher inflation for longer in order to support the economy.

Mark Carney was making some of his most detailed comments since he was announced as the surprise choice for the post in November.

He said that, although price stability was central, there were “tolerances” concerning the speed with which inflation would be brought down if the economy was struggling.

Some economists believe that the Bank of England’s loose monetary policy is contributing to inflationary pressures and have called for an increase in interest rates.

Well, the previous Zero Hedge story leaves no doubt that Mr. Carney is able to create money out of thin air with the best of them.  This story was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site late Saturday night GMT...and it's courtesy of Roy Stephens.  It's definitely worth reading...and the link is here.

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David Cameron has one great ally: the people of Europe

Cherry-picking. Europe à la carte. And from Madrid, a finger-waving admonition that "David Cameron must understand he cannot pretend to renegotiate the treaties, and undo what we have done, or slow the speed of the EU cruiser."

There speaks the old guard, still struggling to grasp the magnitude of what has just happened. They offer no flicker of recognition that the EU itself has over-reached disastrously and must learn to respect the nation-state democracies if it is to survive at all.

For the first time since the Treaty of Rome in 1957 a country has challenged the Monnet doctrine of ever-closer union. Some 180,000 pages of "acquis communautaire" supposedly written in stone are being thrown open.

If Europe's leaders dig in their feet, there is a high likelihood that Britain will walk away in 2017, setting off a complex chain-reaction in the alliance system of Northwest Europe.

I just love Ambrose Evans-Pritchard when he's on a rant...and he certainly is here.  This commentary was posted on The Telegraph's website late on Sunday evening GMT...and I thank Roy Stephens for bringing it to my attention...and now to yours.  The link is here...and it's well worth the read.

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Iceland banking in the news: Two Stories...both must watch/reads

The first story/video is from Zero Hedge...and it's headlined "How Iceland Overthrew The Banks: The Only 3 Minutes Of Any Worth From Davos".  This absolute must watch video clip runs for 2:58 minutes...and I thank 'ChasVoice' for digging it up on our behalf.  The link is here.

The second [and very short] story about Iceland was posted early this morning on the irishtimes.com Internet site.  It's headlined "Iceland's refusal to repay depositors, legal".  It's definitely worth the read as well...and it's courtesy of Roy Stephens.  The link is here.

Read more...

ECB Warns of Euro-Zone Risk: Draghi Clashes with Berlin Over Aid to Cyprus

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confronted German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble last week to criticize his stance on Cyprus and said failure to bail out the island nation could threaten the euro zone.

At a meeting of EU finance ministers last week, Draghi contradicted Schäuble's view that Cyprus was not "systemically relevant," a term that implied it wouldn't endanger the euro zone if it went bankrupt.

Draghi told Schäuble that he often heard that argument from lawyers, even though the question of whether Cyprus was systemically relevant or not was not one that lawyers could answer.

And you thought the situation in Greece was bad!  If Cyprus pulls an Iceland...look out!  This article showed up on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and it's also courtesy of Roy Stephens.  The link is here.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confronted German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble last week to criticize his stance on Cyprus and said failure to bail out the island nation could threaten the euro zone.

At a meeting of EU finance ministers last week, Draghi contradicted Schäuble's view that Cyprus was not "systemically relevant," a term that implied it wouldn't endanger the euro zone if it went bankrupt.

Draghi told Schäuble that he often heard that argument from lawyers, even though the question of whether Cyprus was systemically relevant or not was not one that lawyers could answer.

And you thought the situation in Greece was bad!  If Cyprus pulls an Iceland...look out!  This article showed up on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and it's also courtesy of Roy Stephens.  The link is here.

Read more...

Swiss Ministers Seek More Depreciation of ‘Strong’ Franc

Swiss ministers said the franc’s strength remains a concern even after its recent slide against the euro to the weakest in 20 months.

“Euphoria is misplaced” and more depreciation is needed, Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 26. “The franc is still very strong.”

The Swiss National Bank imposed a ceiling of 1.20 francs to the euro in September 2011 to protect exporters as surging bond yields in Europe’s weakest economies pushed investors to seek the safest assets. The currency has since weakened as signs Europe’s debt crisis is easing sapped demand for havens.

This Bloomberg story was filed from Davos yesterday...and was posted on their website early yesterday morning Mountain Time.  It's courtesy of Elliot Simon...and the link is here.

Read more...

China tells U.S. to slow money printing presses

A senior Chinese official said on Friday that the United States should cut back on printing money to stimulate its economy if the world is to have confidence in the dollar.

Asked whether he was worried about the dollar, the chairman of China's sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corporation, Jin Liqun, told the World Economic Forum in Davos: "I am a little bit worried."

Jin said he was confident that the Obama administration and Congress would ultimately solve the debate over the so-called fiscal cliff, "but of course the printing machine will have to slow down for people to have full confidence in the dollar".

This Reuters piece was filed from Davos on Friday afternoon Eastern Time...and I borrowed it from yesterday's edition of the King Report.  The link is here.

Read more...

South Korea central bank questions Bank of Japan easing

South Korea's central bank governor on Saturday questioned the efficacy of Japan's decision to ease monetary policy, saying its decision to start buying assets in 2014 could have unintended long-term consequences.

The move by the Bank of Japan was also done in a hasty manner and would lead to large movements in the foreign exchange market, said Bank of Korea Governor Kim Chong-soo.

"What they did created a couple of problems," Kim said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. "One is that the level (of the currency) is affected, and the pace of change is also a problem. They did it too hastily."

Key for the Bank of Korea is a stable exchange rate, Kim added.

This is another Reuters story from Davos...this one filed Saturday morning Eastern time...and the second story in a row that I lifted from yesterday's King Report.  The link is here.

Read more...

Yi Warns on Currency Wars as Yuan Close to ‘Equilibrium’

China’s foreign-exchange regulator urged Group of 20 nations to improve collaboration to avoid any so-called currency wars while signaling he’s comfortable with the value of the yuan.

On a global level, there needs to be “better communication and coordination” on foreign exchange among the G-20, Yi Gang, who is also a deputy governor of China’s central bank, said in an interview at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 26. “Right now, it is pretty much close to the equilibrium level,” he said, referring to the Chinese currency’s exchange rate.  

Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari said in Davos that his nation is trying to defeat deflation rather than weaken the yen, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s push for laxer monetary policy sparked a slide in the currency. His comments on Jan. 26 followed a week in which German and Canadian policy makers joined a worldwide chorus highlighting a recent plunge in the yen as a worry.

“A currency war, a series of tit-for-tat competitive devaluations, would trigger trade protection measures that would damage global trade and therefore growth globally,” said Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Hong Kong, who previously worked for the World Bank. “That would not be good for any country with a stake in the global economy.”

The stories from Davos just keep on coming.  This Bloomberg item was posted on their Internet site late on Sunday evening Denver time...and is courtesy of Elliot Simon.  The link is here.

Read more...

Tripling in Debt to $1.7 Trillion Drags on Chinese Economy

Chinese companies are spending more than ever to service debt after their borrowing almost tripled over five years, prompting strategists to warn of rising default risk and a threat to economic growth.

Total short- and long-term borrowing by 3,895 publicly traded non-financial companies rose to almost $1.7 trillion in their latest filings, from $604 billion at the end of 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Financing costs, including interest, on all forms of debt climbed to the highest level as a percentage of gross domestic product last year, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

“There’s just a lot more debt in China today than there was really ever in the past, relative to nominal GDP,” said Mike Werner, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Bernstein. “More and more of the country’s resources have to be put to just financing outstanding debt, and that itself is a headwind for economic growth.”

This Bloomberg story was filed from Shanghai on Sunday evening Mountain Time...and is another offering courtesy of Elliot Simon.  The link is here.

Read more...

Bank probes find manipulation in Singapore's offshore FX market - source

Internal reviews by banks in Singapore have found evidence that traders colluded to manipulate rates in the offshore foreign exchange market, according to a source with knowledge of the inquiries.

The discovery widens a global lending rate scandal into new markets, as fallout from the Libor case puts banks under added scrutiny and spurs both regulators and institutions to reconsider how certain key interest and currency rates are set.

The probes found evidence showing that traders from several banks communicated with each other over electronic messaging about what rates they were going to submit for the local banking association's fixings for non-deliverable foreign exchange forwards (NDFs), aiming to benefit their trading books.

"Traders were talking to traders, saying: 'I need you to help me today, I need to fix low,'" said the bank source, who asked not to be identified due to the confidential nature of the reviews.

What else is new?  This Reuters piece was filed from Singapore on Sunday evening Eastern time...and then picked up by the yahoo.com Internet site.  I thank Scott Pluschau for sending it...and the link is here.

Read more...

Jeff Clark...Casey Research...Two Chess Moves Away from Capital Controls

This commentary by Jeff was contained in the Monday edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch.  There's lots about gold in here...and it's worth your time.  The link is here.

Read more...

Chris Martenson interviews James Turk about the central bank war against gold

On Saturday, market analyst Chris Martenson interviewed GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk about gold market manipulation by U.S.-allied central banks, which, Turk says, are losing their war against gold.

I borrowed the above paragraph, plus the headline, from a GATA release on Saturday...but the first person through the door with this interview was actually Marshall Angeles. The interview is about 27 minutes long...and is posted as audio at Martenson's Internet site peakprosperity.com.  The link is here.

Read more...

Alasdair Macleod: Bank of England gold -- the doubts remain

GoldMoney's Alasdair Macleod deduces evidence that if central bank gold reserves are really intact, a primary custodian, the Bank of England, should be vaulting more gold than the 5,738 tonnes it reports.

This is a story I borrowed from a GATA release on Sunday.  Macleod's commentary is headlined "Bank of England Gold: The Doubts Remain" and it's posted at GoldMoney's Internet site here.

Read more...

Russian Gold Reserves Up 8.5% In 2012 - Palladium Reserves “Exhausted”

This must read commentary was posted on the goldcore.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank Elliot Simon for his final contribution to today's column.  The link is here.

Read more...

Former Fed and Treasury official endorses transparency for gold swaps and leases

Interviewed today by the German financial journalist Lars Schall, former Federal Reserve and Treasury Department official Edwin M. Truman seems to back away from his assertion to a World Bank and Bank for International Settlements conference last month  that the Washington Agreement on Gold was "the modern counterpart" of the gold price-rigging London Gold Pool of the 1960s. But Truman extends his call for greater transparency in central banking to encompass the gold swaps and leases that, according to a March 1999 report of the International Monetary Fund, are kept secret to facilitate secret intervention in the gold market.

The interview with Truman is embedded in this GATA release along with a few other relative items...and the link is here.

Read more...

Jeff Thomas: The Disappearing Gold

Financial writer Jeff Thomas today shows that central bank gold swaps and leases and the massive naked short position they underwrite are starting to get figured out.

This is something else I borrowed from a GATA release yesterday. Thomas' commentary is headlined "The Disappearing Gold" and it's posted at internationalman.com Internet site...and the link is here.

Read more...

 

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

As the Founding Fathers knew well, a government that does not trust its honest, law-abiding, taxpaying citizens with the means of self-defense is not itself worthy of trust. Laws disarming honest citizens proclaim that the government is the master, not the servant, of the people. -- Jeff Snyder

With options and futures expiry in gold for the February delivery month upon us, it should have come as no surprise that JPMorgan et al would take down the price so that all those contracts would finish out of the money and expire worthless.  They're quite good at that...and I've seen this sort of price action countless times over the last thirteen years or so.

Couple that with the FOMC meeting going on today and tomorrow...and also throw into the mix the job numbers coming out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Friday...and the rest of the week from a price point of view, is really up for grabs.  I know for sure what precious metal prices should be doing...but will JPMorgan Chase et al allow it?

After another day of "slicing the salami"...the silver and gold charts look like this.

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

And even though we're below the 200-day moving average in gold...and kissing the 200-day moving average in silver, neither metal is close to being in oversold territory.  I get tired of saying it...but can we go lower in price from here?  Sure...but will we?

The other thing I get tired of mentioning...and I'm sure you get tired of hearing...is that how high and fast the next price rally goes, depends 100 percent on whether or not the bullion banks go short against the new technical fund longs that come back into the market once the price has broken above key moving averages.  If they do, it will be the same price pattern we've been looking at for the last twenty-five years or so.

But if they don't, then you won't have to ask whether this is the big move or not, because as Ted Butler has pointed out to me many times over the years...it will be self-evident.  Sooner rather than later, this price management situation will come to a head...and it's the dénouement that I await with great interest.  Of course there's always the possibility that one should be careful what one wishes for.  The reason I say that is because when the big day comes, I can pretty much guarantee that there will be other things going on in the world that will be far less pleasant.

In Far East trading on their Tuesday, all four precious metals rallied a bit...but at, or soon after the London open, the selling pressure began anew.  Gold volume is monstrous, but once you subtract the roll-overs and spread trades, the net volume is virtually nothing.  I believe that today is the last day for the big traders to roll out of the February contract...and that fact is more than obvious in the volume figures as of 5:13 a.m. Eastern time.  Silver volume is pretty decent as well.  The dollar index is doing nothing...just like it has been doing for the last week.

Before signing off for today, I'd like to remind you of the expressions "buy the dips"...or "buy when blood is running in the streets."  Well, what you have before you is right out of the Investment 101 textbook...and I'll leave it at that.

As many at Casey Research [and elsewhere] have been pointing out, the precious metal stocks have never been this cheap versus the price of gold itself.  So I'd like to remind you one more time that there's still an opportunity to either readjust your portfolio, or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take out a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. Don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.

That's more than enough for one day...and I'll see here tomorrow.