But don’t count me bullish. I see no holes in the analysis that this is an ongoing slow train wreck – the unfolding worst-case-scenario. The European financial and economic crisis will not be resolved anytime soon (think post-Bubble Japan). Greece is an unmitigated disaster and, throughout Europe, economic structure now (in a post Credit boom backdrop) matters. I don’t see how such dissimilar economic structures (and social and political systems), say between Italy and Germany, are consistent with a common currency. LTRO only buys time. China is, as well, an accident in the making.
I look at the global backdrop and see all the makings for a major, major market top. It’s just impossible to know how far away – both in time and price – we are from such an outcome. I don’t envisage a new bull market – but instead see the same type of manic marketplace that brought us the 2010 “flash crash” and the 2011 10-day market shellacking.
Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin every Friday is a must read for me...and it should be for you as well. I thank reader U.D. for sending me yesterday's edition that's posted over at the prudentbear.com website...and the link is here.
