September 17, 2009
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Over 7.4 million people have lost their job during the recession, sending the  unemployment rate to a 26-year high of 9.7% in August. Foreboding? Yes. But the acceleration of job loss isn’t the only cause for concern.

The average duration of unemployment at 25 weeks is now the longest since the Department of Labor started tracking the data in 1948. By the end of August, nearly five million people had been unemployed for longer than six months.

Whether the economy is on the cusp of a V-shaped turnaround or not, any recovery in employment will likely be weak well into 2010. As shown in the chart, extended unemployment has peaked, on average, eight months after the previous ten recessions ended.  

Washington has already bailed out several bankrupted state unemployment insurance funds, and in June of 2008 implemented the Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, extending coverage to individuals that exhausted their initial benefits. New weekly claims for UI benefits have slowed in recent weeks, but it’s clear that benefit payments will continue to burden the bloated federal budget.  

When workers lose their income, they turn to the state for cash. When the state’s well is tapped dry, they rely on the federal government. But where does the federal government find its lender of last resort?

Hint: watch the Federal Reserve. To discover how the Fed fulfills this role and, more importantly, how YOU can profit from this knowledge, you’ll have to click here.



 
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