Most investors miss the beginning of history's great bull markets. But you don't have to miss out on the next one. Here's your chance to buy in near the bottom in…
The Great Bull Market
of the 21st Century
It's not gold or silver. In fact, if you missed the beginning of the precious metals bull market, you now have another shot.
But be warned: as contrarian investors well know, assets whose price skyrockets within a few years generally don't start out like that. They're unpopular… overlooked… and ostracized.
Read on to find out how you can benefit from others' shortsightedness… and reap remarkable returns.
Dear Fellow Investor,
Every bull market starts out with a whimper, not a roar.
The chart below shows that gold languished in the $250 to $300 range for two years before showing a blip upwards in 2000. Then it dropped back down before beginning its steep climb to over $1,800 at the latest peak.
In its early bull stages, financial pundits called gold a "barbarous relic," a quaint remnant from a time when old-fashioned folks stored their savings under a mattress. No one took it seriously as an asset.
Well, almost no one.
Smart contrarian investors, like Casey Research chairman Doug Casey, used gold's bad reputation to back up the truck – convinced that the time was near when the pendulum would swing the other way.
And it did.
From its bottom in 2001 to its recent peak in September 2011, early investors made an amazing 640% gain in gold. And those who invested in the best large- and small-cap gold stocks did even better, getting up to four times higher returns.
You now have a chance to duplicate those gains – and potentially more – by getting into the next great bull market of the 21st century.
I call it a "Super-Bull" because it may get even bigger
than gold's meteoric rise.
But I have to tell you, you won't be the most popular guest at the next cocktail party when you invest in this emerging bull market.
Like a hibernating bear getting ready to burst out of its den, right now it looks pretty boring and not worth taking a closer look.
It's nothing much to write home about. People will wonder why you're investing in such an unexciting sector.
Of course, once the new bull market is in full swing, nobody will question your decisions anymore.
But until that time when your friends will praise your amazing foresight and your neighbors will shoot you jealous looks, you'll have to hang in there and grit your teeth.
Which will be easier to do when you remember that, just like visionary investors in 2001, in the end you will have the last laugh.
Read this report from cover to cover and you'll be as convinced as I am that this asset class is ready to head skyward.
Before I go on, though, let me briefly introduce myself…
Juiced Up – and Proud of It
| Marin Katusa
Chief Energy Investment Strategist, editor of Casey Energy Opportunities
My name is Marin Katusa, and I'm an addict.
There, I said it, and I'm not apologizing. Because my particular addiction has not only changed my own life for the better, but the lives of many others as well.
In my early twenties, I taught post-secondary math and calculus in Vancouver, Canada. But after a few years, I realized my passion was not in teaching. So I followed my real passion and interests – resource investing – and put my math and analytical skills to work in this field.
After I got my first taste of the resource business, I was hooked. Ever since, I have pursued unique profit opportunities in the sector with a single-minded passion that some have called obsessive.
From my humble beginnings, I developed into a successful angel investor with a huge network of contacts in the industry.
In 2006, I got interested in European shale gas, four years before the mainstream media picked up on it. One early-stage shale gas company in particular caught my eye, Cuadrilla Resources – so much so that I not only recommended it to my high-net-worth subscribers, friends, and family… I also became a major financial backer and the largest individual investor in the deal.
My subscribers invested at the same time and for the same price I did: C$0.25 per share in May 2008. Less than one and a half years later, we sold in a buyout at C$1.80… for a gain of 620%, in one of the worst resource markets of the past century.
I like to get right in the middle of things, especially with companies whose success I wholeheartedly believe in. In 2007, I became one of the original four directors of Copper Mountain Mining Corp. (T.CUM). Within five years, the company grew from a tiny, private company to a small copper and gold explorer… to Canada's third-largest copper producer.
Today, rich investors like renowned resource broker Rick Rule and Keith Hill of the Lundin Group are asking for my advice. I'm often invited as a speaker to major resource conferences throughout North America, and I'm a regular commentator on the Canadian Business News Networks. I've been featured in articles by The Globe and Mail, Forbes, International Business Times, and many other well-known publications.
And on top of that, as Casey Research's chief investment strategist for energy, I provide my insights on the fast-moving energy markets – as well as the most undervalued stocks and funds with great upside potential – to tens of thousands of subscribers.
But enough about me – it's time to let you in on the amazing mega-opportunity, the Super-Bull of the 21st Century. Drum roll, please…
— Oil —
I told you it wasn't exciting nor sexy nor popular. And you know what:
That's exactl how you recognize an emerging bull market.
It's a sector, commodity, or asset that is so taken for granted and that everyone looks at with such contempt (if anyone is looking at all)… that it has nowhere to go but up.
Of course that isn't true for each and every asset. Two essential factors have to come together for any commodity to enter a boom cycle…
High Demand + Low Supply = Rising Prices
Let's start with the demand side.
China's Insatiable Thirst for Oil
China, with its population of more than 1.3 billion and its growing middle class, has become the world's #1 energy guzzler – now consuming 20.3% of global energy supplies.
On March 12, 2012, Bloomberg reported that "Increased domestic consumption, plus additional imports for strategic storage, has pushed up [China's oil] imports to 6 million barrels per day in February. At that rate, the 2012 import bill for crude will be $250B, approximately equal to the US trade deficit with China."
For years, the Chinese have been fiercely competing for oil with the United States… and they are snapping up the valuable "black gold" wherever they can find it.
In December 2011, Afghanistan's government signed its first contract with China's state-owned National Petroleum Corporation to exploit oil and natural gas in a northwestern region.
On top of the fact that Asian imports of crude from West Africa are at record highs, China is also buying surplus production from Saudi Arabia:
"On average, Saudi exports went up by 200,000 barrels per day and this went to the East, overwhelmingly to China," said one of the sources, a senior executive with the trading arm of a U.S. oil company.
– Reuters, Feb. 7, 2012
But if there's such a huge global demand, what about alternative fuels?
Like it or not, oil is still the number-one fuel worldwide, and a viable replacement is nowhere in sight.
Alternative Energies Don't Work
"Going green" is all the rage, but the sad truth is that in their current state of development, nearly all renewable energies are nothing but financial sinkholes.
Wind – Over-Hyped and Overblown
In March 2012, Professor Gordon Hughes of the UK's Global Warming Policy Foundation published a report stating that wind power is "a technology that is not very green" but "very expensive and inflexible."
A typical turbine generates power that is worth around £150,000 a year, but attracts subsidies of more than £250,000 a year. These subsidies are of course added directly to the bills of energy users.
If the British government's target for renewable power generation in 2020 were to be met by wind power, the cost would be £120 billion… nearly 10 times as much as the same amount of electricity generated by combined-cycle natural-gas plants.
Solar – the Green Parasite
Next to wind, solar is one of the most cost-inefficient energies on the planet.
- In 2011, 1,700 megawatts (MW) of solar panels were installed during the year – an increase of 89% over 2010. Now here's the shocker: All of the solar panels now installed across the United States combined produce only about as much electricity as a single coal-fired plant.
- The material in solar cells that conducts electricity is silver. With silver's meteoric rise in the last ten years, the metal now accounts for half of cell makers' processing costs (9 cents per 18-cent solar cell). Consequently, solar companies have seen their already-slim margins dwindle down to next to nothing.
The only reason that the US solar industry is making any money at all is because it is so heavily government funded. But that is changing as well.
- Over the last few years, the Obama administration spent $9.6 billion on solar and wind power through the Section 1603 Treasury Grant Program… but that program expired in January 2012. As an industry that is wholly dependent on subsidies – not on its own technological capabilities – left to their own devices, US solar producers are not going to survive.
What about corn ethanol, the much-touted "green" replacement for gasoline?
Ethanol: "Lack of Competitiveness"
When you consider that it takes more energy to make a gallon of corn ethanol than the energy output it generates, there's really no point in making it at all.
In October 2011, researchers from the National Academy of Sciences concluded that grain ethanol "could not compete with fossil fuels in the US marketplace without mandates, subsidies, tax exemptions and tariffs... This lack of competitiveness raises questions about the use of government resources to support biofuels."
I hate to say it, but corn ethanol, solar, and wind – all of them similarly heavily subsidized and all of them equally unfeasible – are like Paris Hilton: spoiled trust-fund kids that haven't really worked a day in their lives.
And who foots the bill for their exuberant lifestyle? You guessed it: "Daddy Taxpayer"… that's you and me.
Don't get me wrong – I'd love to meet all our energy needs from clean, green technologies. But not at any cost.
The only renewable energy that so far can compete with the efficiency of fossil fuels is geothermal – which has its own problems, among them a huge backlash from environmental groups and the NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) crowd.
So, oil is here to stay for quite a while. And while demand is skyrocketing, the supply isn't getting any larger…
Global Peak Oil Is Here
You've probably heard of Peak Oil, so named by geologist M. King Hubbert, who in the 1950s graphed a bell-shaped curve of future oil decline.
Well, Hubbert was right.
- US oil production peaked in 1971 and has been dropping ever since.
- At the time North Sea oil production peaked in 1999, the UK was exporting 1 million barrels of crude per day. By August of 2004, it had become a net importer.
- Mexico's Cantarell oil field, one of the largest in the world, peaked in 2004 at 2.14 million barrels per day (bbl/d). In 2010, Cantarell produced 558,000 bbl/d, down 74% from its peak production level.
- For a while, the highly praised KMZ field adjacent to Cantarell made up for the downfall, but experts say that KMZ, too, may peak by 2013.
- And a WikiLeaks bombshell last year, published by the Guardian, showed that US officials believe Saudi Arabia may have overstated its remaining oil reserves by a whopping 40%.
Geologist Jeffrey Brown, creator of the "Export Land Model," believes that after a country's oil production hits peak, it will decline at a rate of 5% per year at the same time that domestic consumption increases by 2.5%.
According to Brown's calculations, that country's oil exports should reach zero within nine years, as it begins to keep available supplies for its own energy needs.
More and more experts are now suggesting that we've already reached Global Peak Oil.
The proof is in the pudding: Worldwide production has been largely flat for the last seven years – as you can see in the chart on the right.
Aren't There Any New Deposits Being Found?
Yes, there are (occasionally). But beware when the mainstream media touts new gigantic discoveries – like the deepwater oilfield off Brazil's shore found in 2008 that is supposed to contain up to 33 billion barrels and, as MSNBC stated, could be "the world's third-largest known oil reserve."
Those overly optimistic estimates usually turn out to be nothing but hot air. Later on, the number of barrels that are there and that are economically recoverable – or recoverable at all, for that matter – is almost always severely downgraded.
As Rex Weyler, executive member of the Vancouver Peak Oil campaign group, pointed out in a recent article:
When you read or hear about "10 billion barrels" of oil discovered somewhere... a third of that is probably not recoverable or entirely illusory. The recoverable portion will require a billion barrels of oil equivalent energy to produce... What is left, about five or six billion barrels, equates to about a two-month supply for humanity. Two months. We will not "run out of oil" because, simply, we will never get it all.
But what about the vast stretches of oil sands in the US and Canada that have been making headlines in recent years?
Basically the same thing. Oil shales are viscous tar sands, and it's extremely hard and expensive to produce usable oil from them. And while it takes 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) to extract the recoverable portion of a conventional 10-billion-barrel field… for oil shales that number shoots up to 3 billion BOE.
There's no way around it: the "walk-in-the-park" stuff – the light, sweet crude that's easy to extract and easy to refine – is almost gone.
And this supply crunch does not even take into account any so-called "Black Swan" events, such as…
- Iran, increasingly pressured by the Western world, could block the Strait of Hormuz – shutting down the shipping lane for 90% of all Persian Gulf oil.
- A natural disaster like another Hurricane Katrina could disable crucial oil refineries on the Gulf Coast for weeks or months.
- A military coup could overthrow a US-friendly government in an oil-producing country and stop oil deliveries to Americans.
Whichever way you look at it, the oil price has only one way to go… UP.
So, you're beginning to see why I'm so excited about oil… and why I recommend to my subscribers to get into this sector now while it's still early enough to make sizeable returns when the market really takes off… just like investors did who got into precious metals in 2001.
Let me tell you how I prime my subscribers for maximum success:
Wherever We Find Them
I know it sounds preposterous, but my team of analysts and editors and I work pretty much around the clock to bring the best energy opportunities to our subscribers.
In fact, I spend more time per year sleeping on airplanes, on my way to vetting promising deposits around the world, than in my own bed.
All the in-depth research we do makes me so confident in the Super-Bull I've been talking to you about.
But our work is not just about oil. We closely look at all the energy sectors, from natural gas to coal and uranium to viable alternative energies. Wherever we discover new facts that tell us a sector is on the upswing (or very close to it), we tell you in detail about our findings, which companies are poised to gain, and how and when you should invest.
My monthly report, Casey Energy Opportunities, is designed to…
- Give subscribers a real education in all things energy. We don't just hand you the latest "hot pick"; we tell you everything you need to know in clear, concise language – no broker-speak allowed. With every issue, you'll become a more sophisticated energy investor, able to form your own, educated opinions on the stocks we're following.
- Give you our honest assessment of sectors and companies. I refuse to peddle an energy sector or company just because everyone else does. In every edition of Casey Energy Opportunities, we cover all the pros and cons of our "sector of the month" and the companies vying for investors' attention. We cut through the media hype so you don't have to. Sometimes my team and I, after having vetted a promising company, will decide that it's not yet ripe for the taking… so we put it on our watch list and alert you when the price is right.
- Make sure you keep the money you've made. As they say, a gain is only a real gain when you realize it. That's why, whenever one of our stocks rises considerably, we'll tell you to take a "Casey Free Ride" – that means take your initial investment off the table and let the profits ride, risk-free. Make no mistake, the energy sector is a volatile one, so we do everything to maximize the returns and minimize the risk.
Let me show you how that works in practice.
About one and a half years ago, we started to notice that some oil field service suppliers were doing better – and were more crisis-proof – than the large-cap oil companies.
So in January 2011, we recommended the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment and Services ETF (XES) to our subscribers at the share price of $35.63.
Just one month later, XES had already gained 12.5% and kept climbing. In July 2011, we suggested subscribers take a Casey Free Ride at the price of $42.75… a 20% gain in just six months.
Another example of the Casey Free Ride strategy in action:
We recommended integrated oil company Cenovus Energy (CVE) at $27.40 in June 2010. In December 2010, we took a Casey Free Ride at $32.10, for a gain of 21.4% (including dividends)… and until we sold the stock in May 2011, the rest of our risk-free shares still made us an additional 12%.
After telling you how we minimize risk, now for a word of warning…
No Guts, No Glory
Natural resource stocks are not bonds or mutual funds or CDs. They don't keep going up in a straight line, ever. But unlike the panicked investing masses, we don't sell a stock the minute its share price is falling.
We're in the market to realize gains, not losses.
In the end, many of our portfolio holdings that dropped 20% or 30% during one of the inevitable corrections turned into our greatest winners.
To invest in these stocks, you need some "intestinal fortitude." But if you follow our lead and hang on through the ups and downs, the potential rewards sure beat the measly 2-5% you can get from more conservative investments.
Of course, if you're brave enough to invest in an unpopular sector like oil – instead of running with the herd – you probably have all the guts you'll need.
Looking for the Nerds
The decision to invest in an unpopular vs. a popular asset is like deciding whether to hang out with the nerdy kids or the high-school quarterbacks: While the jocks are more fun to party with, the nerds are the ones who go on to become the Bill Gateses and Mark Zuckerbergs of the world.
"Oil Will Be the Driver…"
"What's unpopular? That's what we need to ask ourselves. And I think energy is unpopular. I think the whole energy complex is unpopular.... I think oil will be the driver.
"I believe that as much as 25% of the world's supply of export crude will come off the market in 5 years.... So think about some simple math; this is common sense: if worldwide export demand is growing to 3% compounded and worldwide supply falls by 25% (remember the prices are set on the margin), what do you think my outlook for the oil price is?"
– Rick Rule, founder of
Global Resource Investments
You see, every bull market has three stages:
- The Stealth Phase where no one pays attention to the lowly asset. Back in the early 2000s, financial pundits called gold a "barbarous relic," not to be taken seriously. Only the most fearless speculators, such as Doug Casey, got in at the bottom – and were being ridiculed for it.
- Next is the Wall of Worry Phase. Awareness of the asset's potential starts to rise, and gradually institutional investors like hedge funds start pouring in. People who aren't invested feel they've already missed the boat; people who are watch every dip, fearing that it may signal the end of the bull market.
- Finally the Mania Phase comes along. In spite of the naysayers, the price of the asset has kept going up, and now everyone is scrambling to get a piece of the action. When your neighbor, your cousin, and your coworkers start talking to you about oil investments, you'll know it's time to get out.
Right now, oil is in the Stealth Phase – just like gold was in 2001.
And if you get positioned now, you'll be happily selling your shares to the latecomers who called you crazy just a few years before… for multiples of the amount you paid for those shares.
Oil has all the hallmarks for becoming one of the biggest winners of the decade, if not the century. And if you become a subscriber to Casey Energy Opportunities today, you'll catch the Super-Bull in the early stages.
No Arms or Legs Required
You may think I'm in the process of selling you on some newsletter that costs hundreds of dollars. But that is not the case.
Unlike gasoline, which is bound to cost you the proverbial arm and leg in the near future, year-round guidance from the Casey Energy Opportunities team comes at a very small price.
The regular list price for this advisory is $79 per year. You read that correctly.
But you don't even have to pay that much.
If you subscribe today, I'll give you a full year (12 monthly issues) of Casey Energy Opportunities for only $39… that's half off the list price.
And as long as you remain a subscriber, you'll never pay more than that.
It gets even better. You have 90 days to test-drive Casey Energy Opportunities, and if you aren't 100% satisfied, cancel within those 90 days, and we'll refund you every penny of the $39 you paid.
Just click below to get started right now.YES - I want to try Casey Energy Opportunities!
Am I crazy? Why would I hand you an expert advisory chock-full of valuable information and actionable stock recommendations for the price of a magazine subscription?
Simple. My intention is to get you into an affordable energy service that allows you to dip your toes into the water and check the temperature… at virtually no risk. And of course I hope you'll stick around for the rest of this bull market.
If you do, you can reap steady energy profits like the ones our subscribers got handed to them in the past few years:
Seadrill (SDRL)… 19% return in 10 months
Uranium Participation (T.U)… 40% return in 11 months
Nexen (T.NXY)… 15% return in 5 months
Kinder Morgan (KMI)… currently up 31.2% in 4 months
And that's just the start. Once this Super-Bull really gets rolling, I'm expecting much higher gains than this.
So What if Everyone Stopped Running
Their Cars on Gas Tomorrow?
Not that that could actually happen, but let's just assume this highly unlikely scenario for argument's sake.
You see, many investors and pundits, when they look at oil consumption, only look at the two big fuel items – gasoline and heating oil.
They cry "bull market" when heating-oil demand shoots up in the winter and gasoline demand climbs in the summer driving season. They call a bear market when European countries go bankrupt and thus lower their fuel needs.
But most of them are forgetting that without oil,
our entire civilization would collapse.
Oil is used in the manufacturing process of just about everything we use in our daily lives. It drives and lubricates most of the equipment that is used to produce the things 21st-century Homo sapiens takes for granted.
And many everyday products actually have oil in them. Below you see only a partial list of the nearly 6,000 products that are made with or from petroleum:
|Solvents||Bearing grease||Ink||Floor wax|
|Sweaters||Boats||Insecticides||Car and bicycle tires|
|Clothing||Perfumes||Dishwasher parts||Shoe polish|
|Transparent tape||CD players||Antiseptics||Curtains|
|Skis||TV cabinets||Electrician's tape||Tool racks|
|Mops||Insect repellent||Umbrellas||Acrylic yarns|
|Toilet seats||Fishing rods||Lipstick||Denture adhesive|
|Glycerin||Tennis rackets||Rubber cement||Rubber boots|
|Trash bags||Grocery bags||Water pipes||Hand lotion|
|Paint rollers||Shower curtains||Guitar strings||Luggage|
|Toothbrushes||Ice chests||Combs||CDs and DVDs|
|Soft contact lenses||Drinking cups||Movie film||Shaving cream|
|Ballpoint pens||Soccer cleats||Upholstery||Paint brushes|
|Sports car bodies||Nail polish||Fishing lures||Parachutes|
|Motorcycle helmets||Caulking||Petroleum jelly||Artificial limbs|
|Life jackets||Rubbing alcohol||Linings||Telephones|
|Car battery cases||Epoxy||Paint||Bandages|
|Linoleum||Synthetic rubber||Electric blankets||Vaporizers|
So, unless you, I, and all 7 billion of our fellow men are ready to adopt a lifestyle reminiscent of the Middle Ages, oil is not going anywhere.
So I hope you'll come on board and not miss this bull market. Now is the time to get in.
Let me quickly remind you what you have to look forward to…
Investment Advice for 10 Cents a Day
As a subscriber to Casey Energy Opportunities, you'll get:
- A detailed analysis of one of the potent energy sectors we're following – may it be oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, or alternative energies. Recent feature articles included topics such as…
- Israel – the Next Natural Gas Giant?
- Oil Sands – Boom in the Bakken
- Chokehold – the Earth's Bottlenecks Oil Must Flow Through
- Nuclear Power: Race for the Other Yellow Metal
- Land of Opportunity: India's Energy Needs and Investment Opportunities
- A thorough assessment of one or more companies we've been researching – usually followed by a stock recommendation or an addition to our watch list.
- A complete overview of our portfolio – with monthly updates on the sectors and companies.
- Instant access to years of archived issues – to fast-track your in-depth energy education.
- Instant access to subscriber-only special reports on the Casey Research website.
Read our research… invest in our portfolio holdings… for 90 days. And if you don't like what you see, cancel for a prompt, full refund of your money. It really is that easy.
Click below to get started now.YES - I want to try Casey Energy Opportunities!
To bull marketeers in the making!
Chief Investment Strategist, Energy Division