We've written about our views on industrial metals and precious metals – and how, while silver is both, we look at it primarily as a precious metal. Today we have a look at the industrial side of silver and how that's changing rapidly.
The short version is that there are more solid, long-term reasons to be a silver bull than ever. Details below.
BIG GOLD's Jeff Clark and I have slightly different ways to play that, with his approach being more cautious than mine, but we both agree that any savvy investor today should go long silver ASAP, if he or she has not done so already.
Senior Metals Investment Strategist
|Rock & Stock Stats|
One Month Ago
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|Gold Producers (GDX)||53.69||46.85||54.54|
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By Alena Mikhan and Jeff Clark
In early July, Japan set a premium price for solar energy that was three times the rate of conventional power. This meant utility companies would be paid three times more for electricity sourced from solar. It's widely expected that the premium will ignite the use of solar power – and solar uses a lot of silver.
As you may know, silver is used in photovoltaic (PV) technology to generate solar power. A typical solar panel uses a fair amount of the metal – roughly two-thirds of an ounce (20 grams). To put that in perspective, a cellphone contains around 200 to 300 milligrams (a milligram weighs about as much as a grain of sand). A laptop contains 750 milligrams to 1.25 grams.
Photovoltaic technology is relatively young, but each year its use is growing rapidly. Just since 2000, the amount of silver consumed by solar-panel makers has risen an average of 50% per year. Demand grew from one million ounces in 2002 to 60 million ounces in 2011. Last year demand from the PV industry represented almost 11% of total industrial demand for the metal (excluding jewelry). According to statistics from CPM Group, demand grew by 11.2 million ounces, the strongest volume growth of all major sources (jewelry and electronics). And this was before the Japanese announcement was made.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The largest end-user of solar panels is Germany, though that's changing. Last year Germany accounted for 27.3% of global installations, but due to subsidy cuts, solar-panel installation capacity dropped from 7.7 gigawatts to 7.5. In the big picture, that decline was offset by increases in China, France, Italy, the UK, Japan, and the US.
In their 2012 Yearbook, CPM projected a slight decline in silver demand from solar panels due to a reduction of new installation in Europe and oversupply from excess production in China. But with the initiative from Japan, that estimate is almost certainly low.
After the Fukushima disaster, Japanese authorities wanted to cut the nation's dependence on nuclear energy. Approximately 30% of Japan's power was generated by nuclear before the catastrophe; now the focus has shifted to other green energy alternatives, including solar.
The new tariffs might work. The suggested rate of 42 JPY ($0.53) per kilowatt hour (expected to be maintained for 20 years) is more than twice the rate in Germany (€0.17 – or $0.246). Bloomberg estimates that this generous increase will create $9.6 billion investments in Japan alone.
Here's what that amount of money would do to the sector: There were approximately1.3 gigawatts of solar capacity installed in 2011, but experts anticipate that number to nearly double to 2.3-2.5GW for 2012, and hit 3.0GW in 2013. According to SolarBuzz, Japan could see 28GW of solar capacity installed by 2020 and 50GW by 2030.
That's a lot of solar panels, and – even assuming improved efficiency – it'll take a lot of silver.
During recent years, solar panels have become significantly less expensive and more end-user friendly. However, the fact that each panel contains a lot of silver can make it susceptible to large price fluctuations. If the silver price gets too high, manufacturers might seek alternatives, of course, but they can't easily eliminate use of the metal. And if the product gets too expensive, demand could fall. Companies are already looking for ways to reduce the amount of silver used in PV panels or to replace it with another element.
At the moment there are two main solar panel technologies on the market. The traditional one is "thick film," where silver is the main component. The other one is a less-expensive "thin-film" method which replaces silver with another material, cadmium telluride. The development of thin-film solar panels has picked up due to its lower price, but the technology is less effective. Thick film is more efficient in gathering energy from the sun, and this type of panel still prevails on the market. CPM reports that it accounted for roughly 91% of total installations last year, and analysts expect thick-film panels to maintain their dominance for at least the next several years. Further, both panel types use silver outside of the cell for reflectivity and other functions, so the odds of silver being eliminated from solar panels entirely are very low at this time.
For investors, this means that at least in the near term, the solar industry will continue to use silver-intensive technology, thus supporting growing industrial demand for the metal.
But that's not all, folks…
For a long time, silver industrial demand was dependent almost entirely on one industry: photography. Silver-based camera film dramatically changed the structure of silver demand at the beginning of the 20th century. By that time, silver had primarily been used in silverware, jewelry, and as money. At its peak, photographic demand accounted for about 50% of the market.
But this is the 21st century, and in spite of substantial declines in film use, the modern world has developed many other important uses from silver's unique properties. Probably the most important shift is that industrial demand for silver no longer comes from a single field, but from numerous applications – almost too many to count – virtually none of which show any signs of slowing. This fact makes the forecast for silver demand more positive and stable; when one industry drops, others may offset the decline.
Here's a smattering of uses, many of which are still in their infancy:
Though the total contribution from these new silver uses is relatively modest, the Silver Institute rather dryly forecasts that "there is a potential for a number of these segments to boost their silver consumption." As you can see in the chart below, its forecast for silver demand for new industrial uses projects that the biggest increases will be in batteries, SSL, and RFID.
The primary uses for silver are growing, too. For example, the automobile industry is increasing consumption, due to both increases in the number of vehicles manufactured and the expanded use of electrical contacts. As the number of improvements in vehicles increase, so does the amount of silver used. For example, silver is used to control seat and mirror adjustments, windshield wipers, and manage navigation systems.
Based on their research, the Silver Institute forecasts that industrial usage will rise to 665.9 million troy ounces by 2015 and account for more than 60% of total fabrication demand.
Since half of silver demand is for industrial purposes, it can act like an industrial metal in addition to its precious metal component. This means it's susceptible to more forces than gold, making it more volatile as well as more difficult to predict its future price.
The bottom line on the above is that the growing number of industrial applications for silver represents a long-term shift in this market. Increasingly diverse usage is not only here to stay but will continue to grow, supporting the price and impacting the balance of supply and demand.
For investors, the thing to keep in mind is that while long-term prospects for silver prices are extremely bullish, to the degree prices are driven by this increased industrial demand, they are vulnerable to economic correction/contraction in the short term.
The ongoing illegal strikes at Gold Fields' and AngloGold Ashanti's mines in South Africa have cut nearly 40% of that country's gold production capacity.
According to data supplied by Roger Baxter, head of economics and strategy at the Chamber of Mines of SA, around 2.4 million ounces of gold production on an annualized basis are affected by strikes – this is huge.
Analyst David Davis at SBG Securities says that any increase in wages that might come from these strikes could "catalyse downsizing of the South African industry."
Despite the dire consequences for the country, the situation is not as critical for global supply, since South Africa is no longer the top dog in gold production it was 30 years ago. According to the World Gold Council, South Africa produced about 9% of total gold mining output in 2010, 8.5% in 2011, and is projected to produce 8.1% in 2012.
The strikes may further escalate investor concerns about the country's mining industry, which has implications not for just gold but also platinum.
Finland Is Top Mining Destination (Mining.com)
Resource Stock magazine in its 2012 World Risk Survey identified Finland as the country with the lowest risk rating of 73 countries surveyed. It is the third time in past five years Finland scored the best.
Others in the top ten are Sweden, Canada, the United States, Chile, Norway, Australia, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Brazil.
The research aimed to rank jurisdictions according to the perceived risk by the following criteria: financial risk, sovereign risk, land access, "green tape", land claims, red tape, social risk, infrastructure, civil unrest, natural disasters, and labor relations.
There are a range of surveys that estimate the attractiveness of mining jurisdictions. Since we prefer to rely on our own due diligence, our editors visit mines all over the world to get a boots-on-the-ground assessment of political risk. One of these due diligence trips will lead to a new stock pick in tomorrow's BIG GOLD – get the brand-new issue as it comes off the press with a no-risk trial subscription.
North Korea, stuck with a large foreign currency deficit, has been secretly selling gold to cover the millions of dollars spent on celebrating the 100th birthday of its founder.
Newspaper sources say North Korea has been exporting not only gold ingots it had obtained from mines or stored in government agencies, but has also been selling gold trinkets it had collected from ordinary citizens. No information is available regarding how much they were paid for their gold.
This is not the first time we've heard about states excluded from international transactions resorting to gold for trade and other purposes. This is yet another stark reminder of the fact that gold is money.