Welcome to the inaugural edition of The Technology Investor edition of Casey Daily Dispatch. Each week we aim to bring you unique insights and perspectives on what's happening with technology and how it affects you as an investor. From opportunities to threats, we'll cover the gamut. We'll start this week with something a little bigger picture: How good old-fashioned American laziness has led to the first generation of students actually less educated than their parents, and how that may dictate a large part of America's educational future.
As a technologist by trade but a writer by passion, I can sympathize with students' desires to pursue the arts. Few things can be as fulfilling in life as committing a large chunk of one's life to the pursuit of an intellectual passion. But in their pursuit of interesting subjects (and, just possibly, easier As too), America's college students are graduating less prepared for the technological future than their peers from around the world – a trend that is already having serious economic effects as jobs like biotech research now head overseas as quickly as manufacturing once did.
Sincerely,
Alex Daley
Chief Technology Investment Strategist
Casey Research
How America's Obsession with Liberal Arts Is Making Us Less Competitive
By Doug Hornig, Senior Editor and Alex Daley, Chief Technology Investment Strategist
In the world of finance, there is always talk of bubbles – mortgage bubbles, tech stock bubbles, junk bond bubbles. But bubbles don’t develop only in financial markets. In recent years, there's been another one quietly inflating, not capturing the attention of most observers.
It's an education bubble – just not the one of student debt that has graced the pages of the New York Times and so many other publications in recent months.
The problem is not that we are overeducating ourselves as many would have you believe. Rather, it’s that we are spending a fortune to undereducate ourselves.
The United States has always been a very educated country. But it is becoming less and less so, especially in the areas that matter to our individual and collective economic futures. Our undereducation begins with a stubbornly high dropout rate among secondary education students. About a quarter of those who begin high school don't finish.
In an educational system where graduation from high school at a minimum level often means no grasp of mathematics beyond basic arithmetic, no training in basic personal finance, and no marketable professional skills, this is an obvious problem We can and should do more to prepare high school graduates for the world they now live in.
The big problems aren't rooted in high school education, however, but with the decisions we as a nation are making in the education we get beyond the compulsory level.
Of those students who do make it through high school, 30% will not go on to any further education. That means 70% enroll immediately in a two- or four-year degree program, a major increase from the about 49% three decades ago. Despite rising college entry rates, we are not graduating any additional college students. That's largely because among those who immediately enroll in college post high school, some 40% are not expected to get their degrees within six years.
The result: our overall college-educated cohort has flatlined over the past 30 years. The number of American citizens aged 25-34 who have attained a college education – including either a two- or four-year degree program – is exactly the same as the percentage among 55-64-year-olds, at 41%. (The US is also the only developed nation where a higher percentage of 55- to 64-year-olds than 25- to 34-year-olds has graduated from high school.)
Thirty years ago that 41% figure led the world in college grads; now we're 16th and trending lower.
Many have suggested that it's because we have a less than stellar college education system. But nothing could be further from the truth. While it has some problems for sure, the US remains a leader in post-secondary educational quality. One need look no further than the increasing number of foreign students pursuing advanced degrees in the US. For the 2009-10 school year, about 690,000 non-US citizens were enrolled at colleges in the US – the highest level in the world and up 26% from a decade ago.
Not only are foreigners attending our schools in record numbers, they are far more apt to pursue high-level degrees than US students. Foreign students constitute 2.5% of bachelor's degree students, 10% of graduate students, and 33% of doctoral candidates.
Despite a top-notch educational system in the US, we're failing to take full advantage of the opportunities it provides. But the bad news doesn't end there.
In the 21st century, intellectual capital is what truly differentiates in the job market and what helps a country grow its economy. Investments in biosciences, computers and electronics, engineering, and other growing high-tech industries have been the major differentiator in recent decades. In order to be competitive in those fields, however, a nation must invest in so-called "STEM" studies (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math).
During the latter half of the 20th century, as more and more US high-schoolers opted to at least start college and were able to afford to go, their choice of academic pursuits have tended away from STEM subjects and toward the less-rigorous liberal arts.
When fewer students attended college and even fewer jobs required technical skills, private employers, and especially government, could soak up the overflow, putting people to work provided they had a degree, any degree... for a while. English literature, sociology, psychology, communications, fine arts, gender studies, and the like were majors that led, inadvertently, to nontechnical jobs – the blue-collar work of an information economy, marketing, and business, and of course to teaching the increasing numbers of new college students.
However, more careers than ever now require technical skills. Economic growth has slowed and unemployment rates have spiked, making employers much pickier about qualifications to hire. Plus, boomers have chosen or been forced to work longer in those professorships and other jobs.
There is now a glut of liberal arts majors. A classic bubble, born of unrealistic expectations that the investment of a hundred grand (or more) must result in a cascade of job offers. Or at least one.
It's not happening. A study from Georgetown University listed the five college majors with the highest unemployment rates (crossed against popularity): clinical psychology, 19.5%; miscellaneous fine arts, 16.2%; United States history, 15.1%; library science, 15.0%; and military technologies and educational psychology are tied at 10.9%.
Unemployment rates for STEM subjects? Astrophysics/astronomy, just about 0%; geological and geophysics engineering, 0% as well; physical science, 2.5%; geosciences, 3.2%; and math/computer science, 3.5%.
STEM jobs also pay more. The list of the 20 highest mid-career median salaries, by college degree, features no careers from the liberal arts. Instead, according to a survey from PayScale.com, at the top we find: petroleum engineering, $155,000/yr.; chemical engineering, $109,000; electrical engineering, $103,000; material science & engineering, $103,000; aerospace engineering, $102,000; physics, $101,000; applied mathematics, $98,600; computer engineering, $101,000; and nuclear engineering, $97,800.
Liberal arts degrees provide few prospects for graduates. Yet the bubble continues to inflate.
In 2009, 1,601,368 bachelor's degrees were conferred in the US, a 30% increase from 2000, which should be a good thing. But of these, a large plurality, 590,678, or 36.9%, was awarded in one or another of the liberal arts. That's higher than 2000's 36.1%.
Moreover, the next most popular major was business, with 347,985 degrees, or 21.7% of the total (up from 20.7% in 2000). And it was followed by health professions at 120,488 (7.5% vs. 6.5% in 2000); and education at 101,708 (6.4% vs. 8.8% in 2000). The business bulge would be okay if students were trained in how to start their own businesses. But it's more likely that they dream of a lavish Wall Street job, one few will ever attain. In fact, that PayScale survey listed business as only the 59th best-paying college degree.
At the other end, these are the bachelor's degrees earned in STEM subjects, as a percentage of 2009's total, compared with 2000: engineering, 6.4% (down from 8.8%); biological and biomedical sciences , 5.0% (down from 5.1%); computer and information sciences, 2.4% (down from 3.1%); physical sciences and science technologies, 1.4% (down from 1.5%); and at bottom, math and statistics, 1.0% (up from 0.9%).
Americans don't get it. Foreigners studying here do. True, the highest concentration of foreigners is the 21% in business and management. After that, though, comes engineering at 18%, nearly triple the level of US students; physical and life sciences (9%), and math and computer science (9%).
More than one in three foreign students at US colleges are entering these fields. Compare that to to fewer than one in six US collegians. Fine and applied arts, English, and humanities collectively account for only 12% of the foreigners' total.
There are any number of reasons for the emergence of the US's liberal-arts bubble. One is easy money. Students have been encouraged to attend college by the availability of loans, both governmental and private sector, and the disproportionate wealth of their baby boomer parents' generation.
In addition, many companies began requiring a degree – any degree – for entry-level jobs that could adequately be filled by a bright high-schooler.
Institutions of higher learning bear some measure of blame as well. Liberal arts programs are much more profitable than hard sciences – professor salaries are lower as their non-academic options are lower, less equipment is required, and of course, recruiting is easier.
Other factors might include the stigmatization of "nerds" who take on more challenging studies; the lack of quality math and science education in secondary schools (where are they going to get great teachers when there's so much money to be made with the relevant degrees elsewhere?); and the widespread misperception that any college degree will punch one's ticket to an easier life.
As more philosophy B.A.s wait tables, it'd be nice if we could wave a magic wand that populated high school science and math classes with teachers who inspire students and students who want to be inspired. But, alas, this a generational bubble.
Lacking that, high school counselors should begin warning students of the perils of spending four years pursuing an interest for which there is no market and advising their charges where the real opportunities lie.
Would-be liberal arts majors must face the reality that one of their few hopes for a future job is to teach the same subject to the next generation, and that competition for the few such specialized positions is going to be intense.
Furthermore, there remains a wide gap between males and females with regard to math and science. Since three females are now attending college for every two males, this is a vast untapped resource. If females currently are discouraged from becoming interested in STEM subjects from an early age, as much research indicates, that's reversible. If they can actively be guided toward those fields, that's doable, too.
The US has led the planet in scientific research and technological innovation for a long time. But that is changing. Other nations, especially in the developing world, are minting new scientists and engineers faster than we are. Without major changes to our cultural attitude towards math and science, and some pretty serious changes to the educational system to support it, we risk becoming second-class citizens in a techno-society that we largely invented.
[This review of the state of technology education in America is a shortened version of a more complete report due in the next edition of Casey Extraordinary Technology, along with our complete portfolio of technology investment recommendations and an entirely new pick that is poised to provide strong returns even if the markets stay weak. Learn more about it.]
In each issue of The Technology Investor we'll also bring you our take on some of the most relevant (or just plain fascinating) developments in the world of technology. Check out the links below.
Thailand's Flooding May Prevent PC Shipments
According to the folks over at DigiTimes (known for scooping product releases with their inside connections at major Asian manufacturing hubs like FoxConn's Apple facility), recent flooding in Thailand is affecting the supply of hard disk drives. The shortfall in delivery may affect the ability of major manufacturers like Dell, HP, and Lenovo to fulfill shipment demand by as much as 10%, they estimate. If true, this could spell a bad holiday quarter for the companies and potentially an earnings miss come next conference calls in January and February. If you're holding any major PC manufacturing stocks, watch out.
Does the Brain Play a Role in Diabetes?
Diabetes is a complex metabolic disorder of carbohydrate, fat, and protein metabolism, but fundamentally, it boils down to an inability to properly regulate blood glucose levels in the body. Glucose regulation is traditionally thought to be the domain of the liver (which produces glucose) and the pancreas (which produces insulin and amylin to keep glucose levels in check). But apparently that's not the whole story. Researchers at Albert Einstein College of Medicine of Yeshiva University have discovered that the brain (which needs a constant supply of glucose to survive) also has a hand in glucose regulation. These results could pave the way for the development of a new class of brain-targeting treatments for diabetes
Cancer Drug Shows Promise in Obesity Fight
Since the late '90s, when the anti-obesity drug fenfluramine (or dexfenfluramine) phentermine (otherwise known as Fen-Phen) was found to possibly cause heart valve defects in as many as a third of patients, the FDA has been quick to reject or pull virtually all weight-loss drugs from the market, leaving the anti-obesity market barren. Three recent high-profile rejections include Contrave by Orexigen, Lorcaserin from Arena Pharmaceuticals, and Vivus' Qnexa. As it stands now, the only anti-obesity drug on the market is Xenical from Roche, which reduces intestinal fat absorption. A lower-dose, over-the-counter version of the drug is sold under the name Alli. But a new drug originally developed to fight cancer offers hope. The early success of a synthetic peptide that inhibits blood supply dubbed "adipotide" may open a new front in the war against obesity.
Scientists from Swiss research group Empa have created an "electric car" that is only a few nanometers long. Cool, yes. But the picture of efficiency it is not – the nanocar requires a 500-millivolt charge once every half-revolution of its wheels.
Google Calls It Quits on Renewable Energy
In The Official Google Blog the company announced that it was ending its clean energy program, called "Renewable Energy Cheaper than Coal" (RE<C), along with six other projects the search giant has deemed unsuccessful. The RE<C initiative, which was mainly focused on improving solar power technology, was developed as an effort to drive down the cost of renewable energy. But at this point, according to Google, other institutions are better positioned to take the research to the next level. RE<C was one of a number of projects being pursued by Google.org (the company's philanthropic arm dedicated to addressing global challenges).
Dozens of Major Retailers Downed on Cyber Monday
According to a survey by Catchpoint.com, many of the top retail websites went down throughout the day, costing the companies hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost sales.
Think You Can Balance the Federal Budget?
Frustrated with the inability of Washington politicians to come up with a way to reduce deficit spending? Think you could do a better job? Okay, have at it. At Budget Hero you can play Congress. Make cuts, raise taxes, whatever you like. See if you can accomplish what the "Supercommittee" couldn't.